inflation stood at September 2018 in 5.02% per year, the highest rate observed since March this year.
This figure is above the target set by Mexico, how are we going?, 3% (+/-1% a year), so the #SemáforoEconómico of inflation is in red.
Inflation, i.e., the increase in prices faced by Mexican consumers, is also far from the projections of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
While during the first five months of the 2018 inflation showed a downward trend, from June the trend has changed, with a steady increase in the monthly inflation rate in the last four months.
The increase in prices has been driven mainly by not underlying component, which includes more volatile prices of goods agricultural, energy and rates authorized by the Government.
This trend disagreed with forecasts from the Bank of Mexico for inflation in 2018. While in the last quarterly report (April – June 2018), the central bank adjusted its forecasts for inflation at the end of 2018 4.2% (3.8% which was provided in the previous report), inflation has not shown a trend indicating an approach to that I TA in the 3 months remaining in the year.
In September 2018 not underlying inflation was 9.15% per annum, one rate higher than that observed in August of the same year, 8.80%. In addition, no underlying inflation observed in September is the highest observed so far in the year.
In contrast with the projection of Banxico, in its October 2018 world economy Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund estimates that Mexico will close the year with average annual inflation of 4.8%.
The national index of prices to the consumer (INPC), which reflects the weighted average of the prices of a basket of goods and services consuming Mexican homes is used to measure inflation. The index takes into account 299 generic goods and considers the prices of goods and services of different brands and presentations chosen by Inegi.
No underlying component has a greater weighting in the NCPI today that some months ago. From August 2018, Inegi began to publish a new NCPI, which, among other changes, the weighting of the component not underlying increases and decreases of the underlying component of inflation.
Thus, inflation presented at agricultural or energy products, as well as rates authorized by the Government, has greater weight in the observed general inflation.
While the prices of agricultural products grew 1.22% per year in the month, the rates authorized by the Government increased by 5.42%.
On the other hand, energy prices saw an increase of 19.20% a year in the month, driven by inflation in the LP gas and low-octane gasoline. September 2017 to September 2018, LP gas prices increased in 25.56% and those of gasoline low octane 22.33%; electricity prices increased 3.78% during the same period, while the domestic natural gas grew 8.38% per year.
On the other hand, not underlying inflation was explained by the annual increase of 3.95 percent in the prices of goods, as well as the rise of 3.38% in services prices.
From August 2018, Inegi publishes inflation at the subnational level, allowing you to see the differences in inflation observed in the States. In States such as Oaxaca and Baja California are observed inflation of 0.77% and 0.72% per month, respectively; on the other hand, Puebla saw an increase in prices of 0.25% per month during September, while in Tlaxcala observed monthly inflation was 0.28%.