translated from Spanish: Trump, with a divided Congress will be forced to negotiate trade disputes

the prospect of a stalemate in Congress to remove Donald Trump policies generated profits in emerging markets. However, following the midterms of the United States, the biggest wild card is still international trade.
Trump still keeps the reins of the talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, before his scheduled dinner at a Summit of the Group of 20 later this month, although a trade deal recently renegotiated in North America runs the risk of being blocked or delayed by the Democratic majority of the House. In addition to the uncertainty, it is the new Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has already tested the optimism in the market before its inauguration on December 1.
Even so, investors and strategists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ashmore Group Plc said that a divided Congress will force Trump to embrace its spirit of negotiation, helping to repair the trade disputes. Also reduced tariffs could lead to a weaker dollar, which would elevate the appetite for riskier assets in developing nations.
“Trump is now a lame duck,” said Jan Dehn, head of research at London’s Ashmore Group, which oversees $ 76 billion. “Congress doesn’t want economic madness, so it will tell you to take the pill for trade”.
With some exceptions, stocks and currencies in emerging markets rose on Wednesday when the appeal of a democratic House and a Republican Senate consensus became a reality. The weight of Mexico broke a four-day winning streak and Chinese stocks deepened its decline in eight weeks as the dollar fell.
The debt of the developing nation seems more attractive, since a conciliatory approach to the trade will curb profits on the dollar, according to Dehn. Meanwhile, the strategist of JPMorgan Marko Kolanovic said that Trump would be forced to “abandon the harmful trade war”, which supports a rebound in shares of emerging markets.
That is not to say that the developing world get instant relief from Washington. The approval of the North American trade agreement by Congress, additional sanctions for Russia and the confrontation between the U.S. and China are persistent risks, according to Yacov Arnopolin, a Pacific Investment Management Co. Fund Manager in London.
But even if trade threats not to vanish completely, emerging markets could find relief elsewhere. For example, the partisan division will probably void hopes for Trump pass another round of tax cuts to the rich and lead the Federal Reserve to slow your rate of increases in interest rates, according to Edwin Gutiérrez, a Fund Manager of Aberdeen Standard Investments in London. .
“That undermines the case for the continued strength of the dollar,” he said.

Original source in Spanish