translated from Spanish: Smear and new account?: the continuities of the economy in 2019

odd year is election year and while the Government would like to showcase its economic achievements the scenario for this year has star uncertainty and macroeconomic variables, but koppány. After the fall of between 2.5 and 3% in the gross domestic product by 2018, a number that perhaps seems far away but that is observed in every day in the fall of consumption, consistent with the loss of purchasing power, and a use of installed capacity about 60% , with the corresponding unemployment increasing. 

The private sector market-oriented internal is in crisis, since SMEs denounce a terminal State and public policies do not seem to go to the heart of the matter: the production model. In an attempt to achieve fiscal balance, proposed as a central objective of the budget of 2019, the local economy is adjusted and stabilization takes more than promised. Even the effects of the recession on tax revenues show that it will be difficult to reach the precious balance this year. 

The tab this setting in the sector oriented external, favoured by a growth of the value of the dollar of more than 100% in the year that ended. Bilateral economic recovery in Brazil and apparent trade agreements give hope to a part of the economy. However, if we know about Argentine history we know that sectors traditionally tied to the external sector does not have a great power of spill and earnings are generally not evidenced for the citizen to foot. This is why the Government’s own estimates but expected a historic growth of exports, this is not accompanied by a growth of the other variables that compensates for the decline in consumption, public and private, and investment. 

Estimates of budget 2019 all estimates in the movement of the dollar is central, with an economy with your eyes outside this variable cobra one greater role to which already it has historically in our country. While inflation is discursively link almost unilaterally with the monetary emission by 2018 was the sample that the increase in the exchange rate also has effects on the General increase of prices being Exchange runs left us with the balance inflation highest in 27 years. Today’s economy can not endure another Exchange run. So inflation continues to grow less and less is required to keep the value of the American currency and increase progressively, without jumps. This in an international context adverso, crossed by the policies of strengthening of the dollar on the part of the Federal Reserve and the trade war between the United States and China, also brings uncertainty.
In this note:

Original source in Spanish

Related Posts

Add Comment