translated from Spanish: What are the possible scenarios for the future of Venezuela?

the eventual resolution of the multidimensional crisis affecting Venezuela today more than ever-serious questions about the possibility of Nicolas Maduro on to cope with a situation marked by strong international pressure, a mobilized society and the emergence of Juan Guaidó as a political alternative. In this sense, the military forces are part of a puzzle that, indiscriminately of the deepening of this scenario, are the only ones that seem to have substantive capacity to twist the political future of the country. Military support redirection is, at the moment, the only alternative to Juan Guaidó can aspire to reach the Palace of Miraflores.

That’s that, taking into consideration the natural warp that addressed variables can suffer as a result of the temporal proximity to the facts, when the political fate of Venezuela poses two potential escenario:contra wind and tide, Maduro follows “ad to the country the formation of more than 50000 units of Defense popular in all the districts and towns of the country; come on, militia, to organize the people to serve as a support and complement to the victory of our armed forces”, said a Maduro that in recent days has come and shown all possible military support. If the armed forces support, Nicolás Maduro continues its recently released second mandate as President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

The reality is never so simple, but the truth is that at the time, this would appear to be the main alternative. What would he change then? As a concession to the local and international situation, they could stay ahead of legislative elections, something that the President himself has acknowledged that he is willing to do. Opposite destination seem to have the case of presidential elections. Not only because they took place less than a year (May 20, 2018), but because it would also be by Maduro tacit recognition that the elections were fraudulent and therefore, also taking office.

The reading of the armed forces to a moment in which it seems to be two Presidents, recononocidos and/or reported according to the country that look (but with greater intensity in the bloc headed by the United States), and a society crossed by a crisis without precedents, can also undermine the room for manoeuvre on a possible calling elections. What to do with guided, enable or not the presence of international agencies overseeing new elections and will impact the results in question are the major mysteries that will subtract to be seen under this first hypothesis. The armed forces say just the loss of support from the military sector for Maduro could decant in a new call for elections (most likely) or the eventual backup to Juan Guaidó (less likely). Under this alternative, the worst-case scenario for the future of the country would be that the decision is not homogeneous and sectors within the armed forces are divided, made potentially tragic given that it could lead to a kind of civil war.

On the other hand, pressure to call new elections and the acceptance of the results are, in this scenario, the best possible destination. What will be the future of Maduro, the implications of a potential amnesty law and the considerations of the Allied bloc (Russia and Iran,) among others on the exit of the “son of Chavez” will be the questions to be resolved in this case.

The truth is that when any prognosis in Venezuela would seem unwise. The day passes with chapters separately and climbs in the demonstrations as well as international pressures are unpredictable. In this note:

Original source in Spanish

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