translated from Spanish: Is it possible to have a peaceful solution in Venezuela?

the crisis in Venezuela continues to climb.
Far from closer positions, the autoploclamacion of Juan Guaidó as Acting President and the support received from the United States and other countries opened a political schism not only nationwide, but also internationally.
The Executive Branch, controlled by the President Nicolas Maduro, described what happened as a «coup attempt».
What remains to know is whether there is any way to resolve the crisis peacefully, eliminating an armed solution or more bloodshed in the streets.
BBC spoke with three experts in the resolution of international conflicts.
And they agree that a negotiated solution is the best option.
Getty ImagesUn negotiation process would involve making previous concessions by both parties. A path of this type puts on the table a first initial step, that of dialogue.
However, the parts are shown at these very distant times at this point and the clash of forces is on the rise.
In a recent article in The New York Times opinion, guided, President of the National Assembly, wrote that the time of dialogue was over.
«When repression fails to results, Maduro operators proposed a false dialogue. But we are already immune to manipulation. They have exhausted all their tricks», wrote on Thursday opposition leader, of 35 years.
Somehow, guided is aware of what little they got the previous occasions on which sat down to talk with Maduro or their representatives within the framework of protests in 2014 and 2017.
That’s why in opposition wary of calls by Maduro.
«The best alternative to the crisis suffering from Venezuela is one that combines an exit policy, legal and ethical solid and sustainable,» says Juan Tokatlian, Professor of relations international of the University Di Tella in Buenos Aires.
«In my opinion, that’s the only non-invasive option,» he added.
This proposal means for the teacher a package of vital elements: genuine political dialogue, development of an applicable agreement and, as a final step, a call for new elections.
But it is that any negotiated solution passing through a phase which is what experts call a «damaging stalemate» (hurting stalemate, in English).
In that situation no party has ability to succeed and at the same time not accept transfer.
It is then when installing the feeling that the dispute between the parties will not to any place.
Getty ImagesJuan Guaidó presented on Friday his program to recover the economy of Venezuela.Llegado the moment, both sides are beginning to recognize that the costs of continuing the confrontation outweigh the hypothetical benefits of a Pyrrhic victory.
The army is the key «right now the conflict is stalled. The only way that this is resolved in a relatively fast and non-violent way is army to take a step forward to ensure a transition which restore democratic institutions», explains Anna Ayuso, the CIDOB Foundation, a think tank senior researcher independent based in Barcelona.
«It’s the catalyst to break the logjam,» he says.
The problem with this scenario, says, is that «we should accept that the Government of Maduro is not legitimate».
Getty Images «the transition has to be led by Juan Guaidó.» It may be different, but what if necessarily is the recognition that elections were not transparent», he adds.
Foreign positions United States intransigence and little faith in the word of ripe are two very negative factors if you want to reach a negotiated solution, according to Ivan Briscoe, of International Crisis Group, an organization that assists in the resolution of international armed conflicts.
And there can be a process of dialogue and negotiation if mature gives steps to show its goodwill and to regain the confidence of the international community.
For Briscoe, it can happen by four concrete measures.
«The release of all political prisoners, recognition of the powers of the National Assembly have been undermined since 2016, the end of the constituent Assembly and recognition of reforming the Bolivarian National Guard, responsible for many abuses in» the protests».
Getty ImagesDesde the opposition accuse the Bolivarian National Guard of abuses during the demonstrations.» If mature does not start these points, do not think that it is possible to set an agenda for negotiations», says Briscoe.
The expert recalled that a possibility very repeated in Latin American political history is that «there is a movement in the upper echelons of the military».
«That movement would not be guided to recognize or negotiate with him, but to replace Maduro by another figure who would defend the interests of the military in a predictable negotiation,» he points out.
All the experts who spoke with BBC World agree remember that the army has a very important weight in the control of economic resources and the country’s institutions.
«At this point, any solution will involve agreements of coexistence, agreements difficult to forge, in which probably certain chavism interests are respected in the new political configuration», Briscoe estimated.
ReutersPence has been one of the more involved in supporting the opposition of Venezuela.Concesiones «in all transitions have to cede. It is as in Colombia with the FARC. Transitional justice is thus,»Ayuso said.
«There will be red lines and other points in which it will be necessary to make concessions,» estimated the CIDOB expert.
«The crisis in Venezuela is product of the Venezuelan, but in a deeper sense reflects diplomatic myopia in the region», says Professor Tokatlian.
«Our fragmentation – exacerbated today by multiple factors – is making us more dependent, either a declining as United States power or an ascendant China and irrelevant», concludes Professor Tokatlian.
Thanks for reading! Help us to continue with our work. How? You can now subscribe to political Animal on Facebook. With your monthly donation, you will receive special content. Find out how to subscribe here. Check our list of frequently asked questions here.

Original source in Spanish

Related Posts

Add Comment