translated from Spanish: The possible effects of the verdict of Chapo Guzman

with the possible life sentence of the boss of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín Archivaldo Guzmán Loera, there are several factors which are concerned about and which could be present in regards to security and statal; However, Tomás Guevara, sociologist, researcher of the Autonomous University of Sinaloa (UAS), said that the news of the verdict to the Chapo is no surprise, because «this was already known practically since they extradited him». The researcher argued that it is a fact that was to come, and that somehow the people involved in this phenomenon is already prepared for this: «Was only confirm the culmination of the process,» added, referring to the judicial process that faced the Sinaloa boss in United States. This because, after a three-month trial, a jury in Brooklyn Court declared Guzmán Tuesday guilty of ten defendants charges that placed it as a participant in a criminal enterprise, as well as conspiracy to import and distribution of cocaine, heroin, marijuana and methamphetamines; as well as use of firearms and money laundering. Expectations according to the side effects that this news symbolize for social security, Guevara said that «the effect that can have is unpredictable «. Regarding the possibility of an internal strife or control before the closure of life to the Chapo, the sociologist said that, from being a possibility, already has had manifested. According to whether criminal groups «be sprayed or divided by control», stated that, if so, «had already started long ago;» However, it is not as well». On a possible territorial dispute and Sinaloa operations by other criminal groups in the country, considered it a little viable chance: one might think that other posters could extend a domain in our institution, which is unlikely commented There are expectations in the air, including «judgment hurts and harms to the cartel, but said that these»are the risks that they run and are the things that can happen,»referring to the hierarchical world of organized crime. He added that there could be a retreat by crime groups and that this could visualize how it ends by settled policy that the federal Government has designed public security. Descent as a result alternate to this Declaration of the American justice system, Tomás Guevara said there is a hypothesis of decrease in crime relative to this type of crime rates and what they entail: there are more possibilities of that now start to live a period of decrease, as data about criminal traffic lights have been protesting it statistically, the expert said: «there is a decrease in killings of high impact and there is a tendency to be lessening. We are no longer in the list of the first five States with the largest number of homicides. The new project of the federal Government, the new strategy of public security, the trial and sentencing of the Chapo, all this in the long run will bring a contraction of the crime of high impact for our entity». Displacement about an aspect which could be reflected in security, Guevara raised the possibility of offences from redirecting to other proceedings; i.e. that who performed actions for organized crime rethink its activities in another tenor, perhaps affecting the social environment: «the problem that could arise is from these criminal groups which remain unprotected by this contraction own groups of organized crime, the peripheral tiny groups to the Sinaloa Cartel, which are left unprotected and without possibilities, could see an increase in common crime». Considering that the entity «is in a process of reduction of high impact violence», sociologist provides that on the other hand there is an increase in insecurity for the caring for ordinary: «the effect on the case of the Chapo will not be as high-impact I rather think that he reassured the waters and things will remain so for some time.»
concerning the remote control that could put Guzman Loera from the situation in which it is placed, the diagnosis is uncertain, told Guevara. To do so, it could give «some point of view or give an instruction», accepted.
There will be opportunity, it will have. Will have much effect on the direction of the organized crime groups?, is uncertain conflict on the other hand, political scientist Ernesto Hernández Norzagaray said that the part that corresponds to the conflict that will render this decision (verdict) already had solution: already realized what could have been a threat. I think the part that has to do with the conflict is resolved also noted that the responsibility to a certain extent is by means of the foreign Government, and in this lies the commitment: the fact that it is a court that is located in the city of New York dej a view which are not the authorities of this country who are sentenced to the plated under the expectation of an attack on the security of the State by fights between cartels, considered that there are no signs or evidence and that they would be referred to other areas : «I do not see any indication of an internal dispute in the State or in areas which had traditionally been of the Sinaloa Cartel. I think that reactions, whether it is that you there are, will be on another level». Processes of agreement with statements, evidence, and data that they have collected during the process of the trial, Ernesto Hernández Norzagaray emphasized that, despite talk of another judicial jurisdiction, information that was generated through witnesses that are presented at trial and the evidence provided by the Court, set gather in «a pretty thick dossier», which somehow «it will be a starting point for proceeding the competent bodies of the country», as it relates to Mexico. «» It is a very substantial record and is a very important landmark decisions that are handled in terms of persecution of crime and also the definition of a public policy in judicial matters,»stressed, with emphasis on Mexican jurisdiction and its acting with based on this file of evidence and situations that are addressed in the trial. In this tenor, considered the analyst that the main question is if really these accusations that «the Mexican nation» will be met. Based on this legal responsibility, said that they are facts that can not be ignored and that it invites to be attended: «you can’t ignore it. Finally gives rise to air issues that had not been touched for a long time,»added Hernandez Norzagaray, Bulacan.

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