April News mil. That at least in economics. The month that was characterized in the past by the rains, now brings a “temporary” headlines in the economic and political fields. The tax reform is only one part of the battery of issues that are on the table for discussion, to which are added the reforms Isapres and health, pensions, the approval of the TPP, changes in the labour market, light meters the adjustment of consumption and the international climate.
Although a part of the political Committee believes have scored some “goals” in management, as no mandatory change of gauges, the reform of the health system and the realization of the COP25 in Chile, several of these events – as the designated climate summit- his way have started full of stumbles. In the private world which is made these days is that Piñera is at risk of “encastillar” in La Moneda, which means living a reality parallel to and different from what the social and economic progress of the country throws on a daily basis and in the polls.
This panorama, was precisely analyzed by the Gemines consultant in its April report. In this document he made a crude review on the bargaining power of the Executive, something that became apparent after approval–barely–of the idea of legislating the tax reform after eight months of strips and you events in Congress.
After a year since he assumed power, President Piñera and his team have shown a “remarkable inability” to forge ahead with its legislative agenda. “The delay to introduce tax reform and deliver amusingly first category tax reductions, has joined a tenacious resistance from the opposition, which controls both houses of Congress, to allow the Government to exercise the mandate to It received from the citizens. In the case of tax, rather timid reform Moreover, their initial motivation of simplification and reducing the negative impact of that made by Bachelet in 2014, is has been transformed in a monstrosity that looks for raising taxes, and possibly cancel your potential positive impact on investment. The latest announcement by the Minister of finance added measures that take additional$ 471 million. The fundraising for the electronic ballot estimate was strongly oversized or we will end up with a reform that will increase the tax burden, which would be the upside-down world”, said the report by Gemines.
This is important, because the political issue is assuming an important role in the course of the economy. The feeling of private is “rare” and between them have been dividing waters in support of Pinera’s Government. For example, the CPC took a more collaborative with the tax reform attitude, while Sofofa was critical of the outcome of negotiations.
In the case of meters, while initially existed completely found versions among companies in the sector, there is now a transversal vision that the Government was wrong the way and put them in the eye of the hurricane.
“Unfortunately, Piñera II management is beginning to resemble worrying way of Piñera I, with all the inefficiency that had, and it seems that the opposition prefers to settle the economic growth under the assumption that it can benefit electorally,”added Gemines.
He also warned that approving the idea of legislating not should be celebrated as a triumph by the Government, but it is the least that should happen and added it would be rare that, considering the opposition attitude, other projects relevant and urgent, as reforms social security, labour market and Isapres, face a similar fate.
“Yet not be ignored to stoke up the Congress of projects without having an appropriate strategy to achieve the approval of some of them, it only gives a picture of confusion, lack of goals and, ultimately, of not knowing what want to do with power and mandate p” popular Government received. Unfortunately, the Government has lacked le ability to face denial of salt and water by an opposition very fragmented and weak, capable only of the most incredible contortions to deny themselves (smart meters and TPP-11, for example). On the other hand, the Government is beginning to pay for the mistake of not having vetoed the absurd act of the ‘giant squid’, which is destroying jobs and ruining a relevant activity in the VII Region, not only for the industrial, but also and paradoxically “, for the artisanal fishermen”, described in its analysis, the Manager of studies of Gemines, Alejandro Fernández.
Perplexed Chile
With regard to the political climate, Gemines atmosphere is rarefied, with an opposition which allowed that the Government divided rule, without knowing what business to change to succeed.
Political analysis, conducted by Guido Romo, raised the doubt regarding whether opposition will be able to rearm with regard to other ongoing reforms and restore the opposition force.
At the same time, the country seems divided into a dichotomy between what some think, binominal logic, a model of black and white with the logic of the clicks, moving the public agenda. “In this model include the media, their journalists, political conglomerates and, without being exhaustive, surveys companies.” Chile today seems a confused country. A confusion with various aspects and expressions, but revealed transverse to all variable classification that we occupy. Annoying people, outraged or that does not ‘understand anything’, which seems to share some weariness from the unstoppable decline in the image of our political class and dirigenciales, until the demolition of our common being an ‘honest’ country utopia. That we have not been for years, or never, seems to be what today identifies us. Hate us not have realized before, have advocated that we were different or outright best. Therefore it seems sometimes that hurts and Angers more the feeling of deception that the facts”said Romo.
In a conversation with El Mostrador, analyst deepened the issues raised in the report. The problem lies in the conduction of leaders who are today left driving on the “likes” and have lost coherence, consistency, and their ideas of force. “They are followers rather than be followed,” she said, and that’s a fat mistake.
Romo added that the Government gets on side of the polls, while the opposition has lost “its glue”. Everyone wants to appear and their leaders where van takes them into wind. The currency has brought a slice of this, raised, for any showing to convinced a path, consistent in his ideas, is shown as an obstaculizador of the democracy of agreements and against progress.
Do positive it? According to the analysis, despite the fact that elites do not have the ability to make decisions and lead majorities, society demands greater participation and a critical look at the institutions, which may contain a positive germ of change which, in any case, claims to be ducted. In any case, Romo said, that is “a very difficult to comply with the current political structure demand”.
“The country is waiting for the end of a cycle, with the greatest damage control possible and a transformative wave that comes to take the helm of a course, which no one has clear. In short, to take charge of the historical tension between the need for change and stability required by a country”, concluded Gemines analysis.
