Experts who monthly consult the Central bank Arge Ntino for its market expectations report estimated this Friday that the 2019 will end with a 40% inflation, which also continue to rise in the next two years.
The analysts who wrote the survey of market expectations, whose data were given today, assured that last April’s inflation was 4% per month-the official data were not yet out-, completing a semester with an average inflation of 3.8% Monthly.
In addition, they expect that in the second semester is located at 2.6% average monthly and descend in the last quarter of the year to 2.1% per month.
In their forecasts, they expect the average inflation forecast for the next 12 months to be located at 31.4%, which means 0.7 points more than the previous survey, and raises it by 23.0% for the next 24 months, 0.2 more points.
The experts envisage a fall in the real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2019 of 1.3% and reduced the projected growth for next year to 2.2%.
The expectation of expansion for 2021 held it at 2.5%, as in the March survey, and raised their expectations of quarterly variation at constant prices for the first quarter from 2019 to 0.4%.
They also forecast an increase in the monetary policy interest rate for May with an average rate of 70%, 8.45 points above the March figure, and marked a downward line to reach 50% in the coming December.
The nominal exchange rate projection changed this time upward, from an expected value on average for May 44.7 pesos per dollar to a value in December of 51.2 per dollar.
Finally, analysts projected a primary fiscal deficit for 2019 of 95.6 billion dollars, which supposes 15.6 billion additional deficits over last March, and a surplus of 141 billion for 2020, 2.4 billion more in relation to The previous survey.
Since April last year the Austral country for a strong devaluation of the currency and the consequences of a hard drought that hit the agricultural sector, one of the engines of the national economy.
Amid increasing inflation that has not yet been able to stop, Mauricio Macri’s government, which has already confirmed that it will seek re-election in the presidential elections of next October, announced that it expects the economy to contract 0.5% by the end of the year.