It’s been eight years since a United States command here Bó with the life of Osama bin Laden, the founder of Al Qaeda, in the town of Abbottabad, Pakistan.
The leading organization was considered one of the most deadly jihadi groups, with thousands of fighters loyal to its leader.
But with Bin Laden’s disappearance and the emergence of the Islamic State group (EI), Al Qaeda’s power and influence have substantially weakened.
In the Western media, Al Qaeda may have been eclipsed by EI, but the truth is that it is still active.
How much impact does that organization have today and what threat does it present to global security?
Discrete resurgence
While EI has monopolized the headlines in recent years, Al Qaeda has been following a strategy of discrete resurgence and alliance formation with regional groups.
In his most recent report, U.S. National intelligence warned that high Al Qaeda leaders are “strengthening the global command structure of the network and continue to incite attacks on the West and the United States.”
For its part, the UN, in a report released earlier this year on the threat of global terrorism, stated that Al Qaeda “seems to be becoming more ambitious… It continues to be resilient and active in many regions and maintains its claim to achieve greater international projection. ”
And, in February of this year, United Kingdom intelligence chief Alex Young also warned of the resurgence of Al Qaeda.
Sharpening Network
An intense campaign with U.S. Air Force drones, the death of its leader in 2011 and the subsequent challenge of the Islamic State group have forced Al Qaeda to change tactics.
It has been able to successfully promote a network of affiliates or “branches” in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
These affiliates are local militia groups integrated into the communities that have sworn allegiance to Al Qaeda’s leadership.
Contrary to EI, Al Qaeda has taken care not to alienate the local populations.
Part of its new strategy is to forge local alliances and participate in community development projects.
In 2013, Al Qaeda issued a “General guide to jihad” that introduced meaningful reforms within the organization.
Among other things, the document advocates a more measured and targeted approach to the community, instructing combatants to avoid behaviors that could generate a “mass uprising.”
“Al Qaeda has made an art of focusing on local issues, such as corruption or marginalization, and including them within its global jihad agenda,” says Elisabeth Kendall, senior academic at Pembroke College, at Oxford University.
“In this way, he acts as a local ‘ savior ‘ and positions himself as ‘ the good of jihad ‘ contrary to EI’s brutal thugs,” he says.
Al Qaeda has been continually increasing its attacks through its various branches and affiliates.
In 2018, it carried out a total of 316 attacks worldwide, according to data compiled by armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), an NGO that orders and analyses data on political violence and protests from around the world.
Al-Qaeda Branches
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) was created in 2006 when a militiaman group based in Algeria was joined to Al Qaeda. After a vigorous reaction by the Algerian forces, it moved to the Sahel and West Africa.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was formed in 2009 in a union of two branches of the jihadist network in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) operates in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar and Bahgladesh, and was established in September 2014.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) is a subsidiary of Al Qaeda formed from the merger of several militia groups in Mali and West Africa.
Al-Shabab is active in Somalia and East Africa, and pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda in 2012.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is a merger of several jihadist militias in Syria that controls the northern province of Idlib. Although HTS insists on its independence, the UN and the U.S. considers it a group associated with Al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda in Egypt consists of Al Qaeda-aligned groups operating on the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt.
Future leader?
In a speech of 2015, the current leader of Al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, introduced a young man as a “lion of the Lair” of Bin Laden’s extremist network.
The individual was Hamza bin Laden, the son of Osama bin Laden and widely regarded as the future leader of Al Qaeda.
The United States has officially designated HAMZA as a global terrorist and offered a reward of up to $1 million for information of his whereabouts.
The U.S. State Department’s bounty announcement for information leading to Hamza bin Laden, whose whereabouts are unknown.
Hamza, 30, has been promoted as a rising star on websites that sympathize with Al Qaeda. Someone in whom they hope to inspire new generations of jihadists and revitalize the group.
In recent years, he has issued audio and video messages calling his followers to attack the U.S. and its Western allies in revenge for their father’s murder.
In an audio release, in March 2018, he urged the citizens of Saudi Arabia to prepare a jihad against the monarchs of that country. Since then there has been no more known of him.
According to Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa affairs at Chatham House, “The end of EI’s caliphate has motivated Al Qaeda’s networks to be more careful and strategic about their operations.”
“Al Qaeda now depends more on having a strategic leader. This is helping Hamza bin Laden build support in his attempt to replace his father as the leader of Al Qaeda, “says the analyst.
