translated from Spanish: Possible candidates for the 2021, in the analysts ‘ view

The interference of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, his closeness to Governor Quirino Ordaz, the role of progressive social networks (RSP, party founded by Elba Esther Gordillo), as well as possible alliances between local candidates with projects Are the factors that will determine the course of the 2021 elections in Sinaloa, different political analysts and columnists said. Despite the time it takes for the upcoming intermediate elections to be experienced by the federative entity, Fernando Zepeda, Héctor Ponce Tizoc, Roberto single, Aaron Sánchez, Tomás Chávez Solomon and Luis Felipe Bernal assured that the political characters are Organizing in advance to appear on the ballots, according to the survey published by THE DEBATE from May 7 to 11, 2019. The qualification given to prospective candidates (available at https://bit.ly/2VKMAh3) showed that Héctor Melesio pretends Ojeda is best known to the citizens in Culiacan, Guasave and Salvador Alvarado; Second place in Mazatlan and fourth in Ahome. While Aaron Irízar appears in second place in the capital of Sinaloa and Salvador Alvarado, fourth in Guasave, fifth in Ahome and seventh in Mazatlan. Gerardo Vargas has second place in Ahome and Guasave.

Fernando Zepeda, political analyst. Photo: THE DEBATE

What do you think were the characters best measured in the survey conducted by THE DEBATE?
Behaving Ojeda and Vargas Landeros
«He appears as a logical question among the earliest known, he has not stopped his campaign since he was an aspiring senator, followed him as a candidate for governor and continues in the party of Sinaloa (PAS) campaigning statewide. It would be catastrophic for him not to appear in a poll after so much effort, which does not indicate that he has great possibilities, the same as with Gerardo Vargas, who has just been secretary general of Government in a very hectic administration, but continues to work with his people , very active. «How are the traditional political parties after the election of 2018 with respect to 2021?
Changes for candidates
«Political conditions changed for everyone, no longer traditional scenarios; There were changes, and they will have all who aspire to popular election charges for the 2021 to go playing with the circumstances that are presented at every moment, every month, every day, to evaluate the possibilities that are real to be candidates. There is still a lot to see, write, many people who will appear and are involved in their chores, local or federal deputies lost in their work. Quirino Ordaz could negotiate with AMLO». Do you view the mayors of Ahome, Mazatlan or Culiacan on the ballots for the 2021 election?
Discarded
«I do not see them, unless they can recompose a little of the work that they are doing today they could, as much as possible, try to re-elect; But higher not, as said chemist Benítez (mayor of Mazatlan), who wants the governorship; O Estrada (mayor of Culiacan), who lets slip his chances of competing for another level, unless they reconsider what they are doing. Morena would have to think about it if they accept them to compete: There are great odds that they will lose. Those who aspired to be mayors and lost to them could win; The PRI would recover Ahome, Culiacan and Mazatlan». Could there be alliances between the different political parties with a view to the 2021 elections?
PRI and brunette looking for allies
«Deep down they know that they will have to look for alliances in order to achieve something of their aspirations, and they are people who can negotiate. PAS would surely seek alliance, I do not see very far from Morena; Have always put the convenience ahead. Neither the PRI nor brunette alone will be able to seek quiet triumphs. It will be the 2021 in Sinaloa a very disputed and enjoyable choice. There will be two factions: the PRI allies and those who will ally with Morena. I do not rule out any alliance. «What political actors do you think are missing from the measurement carried out by THE DEBATE?
PAN, PRD, PT and Sergio Jacobo
«Unfortunately, the National Action Party (PAN), since the more Parties can participate in the contest, would be better, because they are proposals that the people should analyze; It is the great absent of this situation for the moment. I do not know if it will take the time to choose the candidate for the elections: they are lost. The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) is lost, the Labor Party (PT) also; Would be the satellites that would add up to the big blocks. Sergio Jacobo has a great chance of growing, minimum re-election».

Héctor Ponce Tizoc, columnist. Photo: THE DEBATE

What do you think were the characters best measured in the survey conducted by THE DEBATE?
Missing definitions
«In the PRI I do not see Aaron Irízar as a candidate, they would be Sergio Torres, Jesús Valdés or anyone who comes out of unity, a surprise, as in 2021. To Rosy Fuentes de Ordaz I do not see her as a candidate: she has charisma; But the governor would not expose it, although in the PRI they observe it very closely. In Morena alone I see Ruben Rocha Moya. In the social networks progressives will be Gerardo Vargas Landeros, who has a lot of presence, leaves very well positioned; I see him outside the PRI, he’ll look for an alliance with Morena and he could be even with BREAD. It’s still a long way off. «How are the traditional political parties after the election of 2018 with respect to 2021?
Gender parity
«The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has a long list of names, the gender parity charter could be played. Rosa Elena Millán and Rosy Fuentes de Ordaz could be the strong as aspiring women. If we see the last election, Imelda Castro and Rocha Moya got 600,000 votes; While Zamora and Rosa Elena had half. You have to measure that, they’re active women that should be measured. Gloria Himel Felix has the possibility of presiding over the Board of Congress in the second year. If it could be realized, it would enter the play. Do you see the mayors of Ahome, Mazatlan or Culiacan on the ballots for the election of 2021?
Subtract instead of adding
«Chemist Benítez was deflated, seeking re-election, would not dismiss him because of his closeness to the president, but he has fought with Quirino and the media. Maybe mere Villegas could look for the mayor of Culiacan, because I see complicated that brunette wants to launch Estrada again. With Billy Chapman (mayor of Ahome) I see it dilapidated by the bad government that has done, would not postulate it neither the PT nor brunette; For the PRI is the most winning municipality, so controversial. Culiacan is also win, and brunette would have to put a candidatazo, Estrada has gone wrong with the media. Could there be alliances between the different political parties for the 2021 elections?
Two candidates nothing more
«Maybe there are two candidates just now. It’s complicated because they’ll make alliances. There is still time for it, but they begin to form. Some PRI groups could go to Morena. They start to make noise, they will not take the whole PRI or they will pull every brunette. The RSP would be directed by Gerardo Vargas; There is the Catem, by Armando Heráldez, who became a subsidiary of Morena. The business sector would be played with the PRI if Alfonso Mejía arrives and PAN groups of bread would unite, along with the group of the Governor (Coppel group). What political actors do you think were missing in the measurement of THE DEBATE?
Jacobo, Adolfo Rojo and Rosa Millán
«Sergio Jacobo has been moving. At the beginning of the legislature he saw him weak; He’s been gaining strength, adding up. Now, between him and other actors already control twenty votes and are removing power to Graciela Domínguez (brunette), which in the end she does not show leadership. To Adolfo Rojo must also check it, he has control of the entire National Action Party (PAN), you have to measure it, although it seems that does not look anything. And finally, Rosa Elena Millán must not be ruled out».

Roberto Bachelor, political analyst. Photo: THE DEBATE

What do you think were the characters best measured in the survey conducted by THE DEBATE?
Vargas, Valdés, Zamora and Torres
Gerardo Vargas, although he says that his militancy is in the PRI, the rumor mill places him as an effective bishop of Elba Esther Gordillo and would be the candidate of RSP. Jesús Valdés brings the commitment to take the PRI register in Sinaloa. Mario Zamora occupies to come more to the state, to be seen; Sergio Torres woke up an unusual activity in the fishing fields, but it is very warlike, we need someone quiet. Aaron Irízar is not seen, is secluded, would be a good candidate. Rubén Rocha would be the candidate of Morena, without ruling out Imelda Castro ‘. How are the traditional political parties after the election of 2018 with respect to 2021?
Ties between Quirino and AMLO
«Given the confidence that exists between President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Governor Quirino Ordaz Coppel, they will talk, and the state executive will seek to play two or three cards. We’ll see what the president says; There is trust between the two. Let us hope, in this case, that Quirino will enforce his good offices with the president. If you convince him, you can go in alliance; If he does not convince him, the president will have the vote of quality, and he will impose a candidacy of brunette to the government of the state of Sinaloa». Do you see the mayors of Ahome, Mazatlan or Culiacan on the ballots for the 2021 election?
«They are lost»
«The case of the chemist Benítez is very local. It has many problems in Mazatlan inside the city council, it seems that it is not a good leader, could not with the package that means to be governor of the state. The case of the mayor of Culiacan, Jesús Estrada Ferreiro, as Mazatlan and Ahome (with Billy Chapman), where it seems that they do not know Where they stand, what is the relationship of the municipality and the civil society groups that allow them to do politics; In a word, they have not made politics, they are far removed from the pretense to the governorship». Could there be alliances between the different political parties for the 2021 elections?
Primor
«In Rosa Isela Fuentes de Ordaz I have always maintained months ago that there is being forged and a possible candidacy is being planned in which the PRI goes in alliance with Morena, we would be talking about the primer. She has been ruled out, perhaps by political tactics, because she has her people, she has: it has been very active in the tares of DIF, which makes her worthy of that highest place, standing out against other wives of presidents in the country. Of Juan Alfonso Mejía, his secretariat will not give a letter of naturalization in the PRI». What political actors do you think were missing from the measurement of THE DEBATE?
Rivas, Clouthier, Vizcarra and Castañón
«Aaron Rivas Loaiza, with the baggage obtained from the administration, is not seen at the moment with political ties with the governor, it is necessary to have it in the reserve, the conditions do not favour him. Tatiana Clouthier, although she made her career in Nuevo León, comes to Sinaloa, presents her book, but does not pay her points; But I do see her deploying activities in Nuevo León, even though her brother has been dismissed as a candidate; It’s family stuff. Jesus Vizcarra know about his activity. To Juan Pablo Castañón we must not lose sight of it. »

Aaron Sanchez, columnist. Photo: THE DEBATE

What do you think were the characters best measured in the survey conducted by THE DEBATE?
Stuck
«The logical natural candidate of Morena (Rocha Moya) was immediately placed as a firm prospect; Since he won, to date, we see that the presence, the activity of the senator decreased significantly, and within his party find many warring sectors against his own candidacy. Imelda Castro, in his capacity as senator, should not be ruled out. Jaime Montes is involved in a series of administrative problems with the delegations of the entity. The PRI has a fairly large group of aspirants, having very consolidated figures. «How are the traditional political parties after the election of 2018 with respect to 2021?
Need time
«It is still very premature to have a panorama with a certain degree of clarity regarding the succession of 2021 in Sinaloa; However, it is clear that every time the political projects need more time to mature, and that process is already underway. The survey of THE DEBATE shows a scenario with 16 protagonists, with an amplitude of varieties that tells us that there are many names on the table; Some with possibilities, others without them, but they begin to arise on the part of the respondents in the different municipalities». Do you see the mayors of Ahome, Mazatlan or Culiacan on the ballots for the 2021 election?
Do not transcend
«A Estrada Ferreiro I see absolutely no possibility, I would take it out of the survey. Chemist Benítez is doing his fight, but does not transcend beyond Mazatlan; It is also involved, like the municipal presidents of Ahome and Culiacan, in a series of unnecessary conflicts, politically very costly, and the attitude they have regarding how to govern their municipalities and the relationship they have with people close Many possibilities to think of them as potential candidates in the future. «Could there be alliances between the different political parties for the 2021 elections?
PRI-PAN or PRI-Morena
«Parties are working in isolation and putting their prospects on the stage; Alliance policy is otherwise woven, with other criteria, other interests. You cannot see what the alliances of the different political institutes will be. If one is playing, for example, the possibility of Juan Alonso Mejía could be hinge between the PRI and the PAN, to generate a polo opponent with brunette; I do not rule out a dark and PRI alliance, we are seeing it in the House of Deputies and in the Senate, this implicit National Alliance can happen in Sinaloa. What political actors do you think are missing from the measurement of THE DEBATE?
Tatiana Clouthier, PAS y PAN
I see that the candidacy of Tatiana Clouthier is being built very firmly inside Morena. She has many more possibilities even than Rubén Rocha Moya, you have to follow what you are doing. In the PAS, I do not rule out that they can play with the rector of the Autonomous University of Sinaloa (UAS), Juan Eulogio Guerra, or the exrector Victor Corrales Burgueño, who are strong pictures inside the party. Maybe Hector Melesio can play with these new faces. Another absent is the BREAD, which shows no face, no prospects, and that is very serious».

Luis Felipe Bernal, Politologist. Photo: THE DEBATE

What do you think were the characters best measured in the survey conducted by THE DEBATE? 
Have Ojeda and Rocha Moya
«He appears to be the best known and most voted, but we can’t just leave with those numbers. The PAS has no other leader. Although the exrectors might be figuring, they have not generated leadership. Around Morena, Rocha Moya goes to the head. Imelda Castro Gender parity will not help you if you are elected as a candidate, you would take a certain disadvantage, coupled with the historical reality of the intermediate elections, where the amounts of the party that is in power decrease. If we add to all the PRI, they have a great presence in all the municipalities. «How are the traditional political parties after the election of 2018 with respect to 2021?
Absent BREAD; PRI reappears
«BREAD does not figure, it is twelve years old without generating strong leadership. The PRI could rebet, as it did in the last election, Quirino Ordaz was not even listed as a candidate; However, the PRI kicks off all the machinery. The PRI will re-position itself in this election of 2021. Not being the figure PRI in the federal government, Governor Quirino Ordaz will work more depending on what he tries to train with possible medium candidateables, which, however, do not add: Álvaro Ruelas has not grown, Jesus Valdés does not grow, as you would believe». View the Today mayors of Ahome, Mazatlan or Culiacan on the ballots for the election of 2021?
Lesser influence of Brunette
«The rating with which Morena arrived decreases, especially by the mayors of the three strongest municipalities (Ahome with Manuel Guillermo Chapman, Culiacan with Jesús Estrada Ferreiro and Mazatlan with chemist Benítez). In the case of the major municipalities, the very questionable work of their presidents did not pay brunette, and will surely have a direct impact on the election of 2021. «Could there be alliances between the various political parties with a view to The 2021 elections?
PAS in Alliances
«In order for the party to be able to appear, it needs to make alliances, obviously. He tried to make alliance in the past with the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), and he did not achieve it. Maybe I’ll do it again with the Citizen Movement (MC), as in the elections of the past 2018. What political actors do you think are missing from the measurement of THE DEBATE?
Antelo Esper and Millán Pietsch
«Bernardino Anteo Esper is part of the great absentees; Having given the secretariat of Science and technology, it buries it more, because the Guild to which it is directed (academic and scientific) do not see it well, far from giving it a visible scenario, it obscures it. He was better off as a deputy than as secretary. Juan Ernesto Millán Pietsch could be another one of the names, now in the State Water Commission. It is not heard much, but it could not be ruled out. ‘

Tomás Chávez Solomon, Editorialist. Photo: THE DEBATE

What do you think were the characters best measured in the survey conducted by THE DEBATE?
Rocha, Castro and Zamora
«The Senators automatically become cardinals, being candidates for the governorship, in this case they are Rubén Rocha, Imelda Castro and Mario Zamora. Among the former mayors, Álvaro Ruelas is the only one who has shone a little. Sergio Torres has given sporadic lurching in the fishing sector. Alfonso Mejía or Rosy Fuentes de Ordaz would not carry the stigma of old PRI, would be new and promoteable, although the lady discarded, because it would look bad, as nepotism; It has a good image, but it would be equivalent to a re-election. «How are the traditional political parties after the election of 2018 compared to 2021?
Multiple names
«Governor Quirino Ordaz must have many letters, because it is nothing more the candidacy of Governor, also are the federal Deputies, local councils and mayors; You need to sample a lot of people, sift it and then everyone will stay at your level. The same survey that makes THE DEBATE shows definitive results: Why would the party not vote? By the PRI. It is a new reality, different from the July election of 2018; Here he lost the most important mayors, was second, has to be a binomial of candidate and party». Do you see the mayors of Ahome, Mazatlan or Culiacan on the ballots for the 2021 election?
Rule out Mayors Morenistas
«I discard all the mayors of Morena: Luis Guillermo Benítez, Manuel Guillermo Chapman or Estrada Ferreiro, when much would reach them to aspire to re-elect, to be local or federal deputies, but for this they should leave the mayor’s office before concluding, and, With the problems they have, they would come up with internal issues that would disqualify them in their candidacies. «Could there be alliances between the various political parties with a view to the 2021 elections?
And Vargas Landeros, with RSP
Héctor Melesio, SAlways will appear in highest or secondly, the last election was with a very strong alliance, with the PAN, PRD and Citizen movement, and was in third place, it did not reach to arrive to Senator of first minority; Then he said he was retiring. The figures in his party have not stood out. It is tireless doing tours, and you may be looking for an alliance with Morena, also talks about alliance with the party of Elba Esther Gordillo. Vargas Landeros also wants RSP, which would represent 40 percent of the magisterium. What political actors do you think are missing from the measurement of THE DEBATE?
Tatiana Clouthier and Antelo Esper
«Bernardino Antelo, who does not visualize it, would be playing as a possible mayor of Ahome, for a federal or local council; On the way they will be settling the pumpkins, as they say. Tatiana Clouthier would be an electoral boom, but has had some discrepancies at the national level with López Obrador himself and with Yeidckol Polevnsky by voting against them several times; It’s a figure, but it’s not disciplined. In the electorate, they would support it quite a bit. It’s mere Villegas too. Alejandro «Diablo» Higuera, for the BREAD. »



Original source in Spanish

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