translated from Spanish: Banxico analysts lower expectation of economic growth

Private analysts consulted in May by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut their expectations of economic growth, and raised their forecasts of inflation and exchange rate.
In the “survey of the expectations of private sector economics specialists”, corresponding to May this year, they revised downward their growth expectation for 2019, from 1.52% to 1.32% in April, which means their eighth consecutive setback.
Just last May 29, Banxico revised the growth perspective of the Mexican economy for 2019, from an expected expansion of between 1.1 and 2.1%, to one of 0.8 and 1.8%, due to a “more marked slowdown”.
READ: Bank of Mexico low growth forecast for 2019; Warns risks by Pemex and T-MEC
Analysts considered that the factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth in the next semester are domestic political uncertainty (18%) And the problems of public insecurity (15%).
They are followed by the oil production platform (15%); The uncertainty about the internal economic situation (9.0%), as well as the weakness of the external market and the world economy (9.0%).
For 2020, the specialists consulted by Banxico maintained in 1.72% their estimate, after eight months downward, according to the average of the forecasts of the survey of the Banxico, carried out between 39 groups of analysis and economic consultancy of the private sector National and foreign.
The specialists also raised their expectations of general inflation for this year, from 3.66% in April, to 3.75% in May, their second boost to the wire, and for 2020 they rose to 3.65%, from 3.60%, after three months downward.
As for the exchange rate, the experts revised upward their forecast for the closing of 2019, at 19.92 pesos in May, from 19.90 pesos per dollar in April, and for the following year also raised it to 20.41 pesos, from 20.34 pesos per dollar.
READ: Economy falls 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019, the first in 9 months, confirms the INEGI
The analysts ‘ perception of the current economic environment decreased in relation to the previous survey the fractions of analysts who consider that the business climate will improve (from 16 to 5.0 percent).
While the percentage of specialists who believe that the business climate will worsen from 35 to 32 percent; And the percentage that it estimates will remain the same increased (from 49 to 62 percent) and continues to be the preponderant.
According to the May 2019 survey, all of the analysts consulted think that the economy is currently not better than it was a year ago.
The percentage of specialists who consider it a good time to make investments declined relative to the previous survey (from 5.0 to zero percent)
On the contrary, the fraction of analysts who consider it a bad time to invest increased relative to the previous month and continues to be the preponderant (from 58 to 62 percent).
As for the Cete-day interest rate level, the expectations for the closing of 2019 were raised to 7.96 percent in May, compared to 7.89 percent in the April survey, and for the closure of 2020 rose to 7.36 percent , with respect to the previous 7.22 percent.
The analysts consulted by Banxico fell in may their expectations regarding the number of workers insured in the IMSS for the closing of 2019, to 528,000 seats, since 550,000 estimated the previous month, and for 2020 decreased to 556,000, from 558,000.
According to the central Bank survey, expectations of the national unemployment rate for the closing of 2019 increased from 3.64 percent in April to 3.69 percent in May, and but for 2020 declined from 3.83 to 3.82 percent.
On America’s GDP growth forecast, analysts consulted by the Banxico raised 2.38 percent of their expectations for 2019, from 2.33 percent prior, and for the next year rose from 1.85 percent in April to 1.86 percent in May.
With information from Notimex.
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Original source in Spanish

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