translated from Spanish: Back down, growth forecast: Banxico

Private analysts consulted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut its growth forecasts for this year back to 0.50%, from 0.79% prior, adding 11 consecutive months to the downgrade.
In the August 2019 “Private Sector Economics Specialist Savout Survey” for August 2019, they also adjusted their estimate for 2020 to 1.39%, from 1.47%, their third down grade, according to the average forecast.
Read more: Austerity isn’t enough, economic growth is the outstanding subject, says AMLO
Factors that could hamper Mexico’s growth over the next six months are, in order of importance, domestic political uncertainty (17% of responses) and uncertainty about the domestic economic situation (15% of responses).
It is followed by problems of public insecurity (12% of responses); public spending policy (10% of responses); and the oil production platform (9.0% of responses).
On analysts’ perception of the current economic environment, the percentage of analysts who believe the business climate will remain the same increased relative to the previous survey (34 to 43%).
By contrast, the fraction of specialists who believe that the business climate will worsen from the previous month, but remains the predominant one (54 to 46%).
As in July, all analysts consulted think that the economy is currently off than it was a year ago.
For inflation, they lowered their expectations for this year to 3.31%, from 3.62% in July, and by 2020 they also cut them to 3.64% from 3.60%, their third consecutive decline in both cases.
As for the exchange rate, experts revised upward sretail for the 2019 close to 19.91 pesos in August, from 19.69 pesos per dollar in July, and for the following year also raised it to 20.38 pesos, from 20.08 pesos per dollar.
The analysts consulted by the Banxico lowered in August their expectations regarding the number of workers insured at the IMSS for the end of 2019 to 419 thousand places, from 441 thousand estimated the previous month, and by 2020 they cut them to 491 thousand, from 517 thousand jobs of tra Under.
According to the central bank survey, expectations of the national unemployment rate by the end of 2019 fell from 3.68% in July to 3.65% in August, and by 2020 they fell from 3.83 to 3.74%.
What we do in Animal Político requires professional journalists, teamwork, dialogue with readers and something very important: independence. You can help us keep going. Be part of the team.
Subscribe to Animal Politician, receive benefits and support free journalism.#YoSoyAnimal

Original source in Spanish