translated from Spanish: What about Brexit now? 4 scenes at the crossroads of Boris Johnson and the United Kingdom

The UK is less than two months away from its scheduled departure from the European Union and yet it seems a long way from knowing how it will do it.
This week, British lawmakers are trying to block the possibility of Brexit occurring without an agreement with the EU, but this attempt to interfere in the direction of the exit process is also a fight against the clock.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week requested the suspension of Parliament’s activities, which has already been approved by Queen Elizabeth II, which could happen between 9 and 12 September and until 14 October, thereby reducing the room for manoeuvre of the legislators.
Uk has been in what looks like a dead end for months. Former British Prime Minister Theresa May’s attempts to approve the agreement reached with EU leaders were always met with the blockade of Parliament. And that motivated me to end up quitting.
In July, Johnson began the post defending that Brexit would not be postponed again and would take place by 31 October, even if there was no agreement with European partners.
But that possibility has also just been rejected by Parliament.
On Wednesday night, the House of Commons – the lower house – passed a bill that prevents the so-called “hard Brexit”, that is, the exit from the EU from being carried out without agreement.
That law is now under discussion in the House of Lords— the upper house.
The Commons also rejected on Wednesday an electoral advance proposed by the prime minister.
So what can happen now?
Here are some of the possible scenarios.
1. Brexit on 31 October in agreement with the EU
The possibility of reaching a new agreement with the EU exists, although given the precedents it seems complicated.
The bill passed by the House of Commons on Wednesday says the prime minister has until 19 October to approve an agreement in Parliament. If this is not achieved, you will need to request an extension of the UK departure date until 31 January 2020.
But the existing deal negotiated by May and his government was defeated in Parliament several times, and Johnson said he is dead.
The government hopes to be able to obtain a new agreement with the EU, or a modified version of the existing one without the so-called backstop or Irish safeguard.
Safeguarding is a measure designed to prevent any possibility of border posts and controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
But while the EU has said it would consider any new UK proposal, it has also repeatedly stated that safeguarding is a critical part of the agreement.
There are currently very few controls for trade between the two Irelands.2. Brexit without agreement
The default position is that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT.
Brexit without agreement means that the UK would immediately leave the customs union and the single market, the legal framework designed to facilitate trade within the EU.
Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say that the risks mentioned by those who oppose this option are exaggerated.
MPs expressed their opposition to a Brexit without agreement, but the decision to suspend Parliament, known as extension, which can occur from Monday 9 September, means that they have very little time.
The first step they took, on Tuesday night, was to take control of Parliament’s agenda, which is generally the prerogative of the government.
They are now trying to pass a law to block a Brexit without agreement and for the government to ask the EU to postpone its departure until 31 January 2020.
However, the law also provides for the exit without agreement, as long as it is approved by parliamentarians.
This is one of the ways in which hard Brexit could occur. The other is that the bill does not become law.
Although it was already approved by the House of Commons on Wednesday, it is now in the House of Lords, where the debate could be lengthened – a maneuver known as filibustering – so that the suspension of Parliament does not come into force before the suspension of Parliament enters into force and derail the project.
However, Ashton de Hyde, the spokesman for the Conservatives in the House of Lords, has already announced that they will discuss the bill at 17:00 GMT on Friday.
If approved, it could receive the Queen’s approval and become law on Monday, September 9.
3. Brexit delay
Even if those who oppose hard Brexit succeed in getting the government to seek a postponement, the UK cannot decide this unilaterally: it would have to be unanimously agreed by the other EU members.
However, extensions have already been agreed and the other states could accept it considering that the alternative would be a Brexit without agreement.
According to reports, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator for Brexit, told European diplomats that negotiations with London are in “state of paralysis.”
He also said that the UK seemed to have the intention of reducing the level of ambition in the political statement that will guide the next stage of the negotiations.
4. Cancellation of Brexit
There is also the legal option to cancel Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50, the rule within European Union law that allows the departure of a member state.
But, clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating. Therefore, it is a scenario that can only be imagined with a change of government.
Boris Johnson came to the post of prime minister saying Brexit would not be postponed again. Another issue that arises here is whether a second referendum is possible, which would bring the Brexit decision back to the same electorate that in June 2016 decided to take the UK out of the EU.
To this end, the House of Commons would have to speak in favour of a second referendum, an option which does not seem to have the necessary votes today.
But everything could change if an electoral advance changes the balance of forces at Westminster.
However, many have warned that a second referendum could have disastrous consequences for British democracy.
They argue that it could be seen as an attempt to ignore the popular will that would alienate the more than 17 million citizens who at the time voted for Brexit.
Others, however, say it is the most democratic thing to do, especially if Parliament fails to agree.

Original source in Spanish

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