translated from Spanish: Health projects up to 35,000 deaths by COVID: Lopez-Gatell to deputies

Undersecretary for Health Prevention and Promotion Hugo Lopez-Gatell said up to 35,000 deaths are expected by COVID-19, according to estimates from the federal government.
During his virtual meeting with the Political Coordination Board of the Chamber of Deputies, López-Gatell explained that estimates of deaths from the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in Mexico have been changing as more information on the incidence ratio is available.
“There is not a single general estimate but we referentially preserve this idea that it could in this first epidemic cycle reach up to 30 thousand and even 35 thousand deaths, each and every regrettable one,” he said.
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According to the undersecretary, the first estimate of the federal government, reported on February 27 and with a mortality rate of .1%, such as the one then held by the Chinese cities Hubei and Wuhan, was projected to pass 6,000 people in Mexico.
In a second scenario, an incidence rate of .2% was raised and the deaths of 12,500 people were estimated, and a third screening, considering a .5% rate, the deaths of up to 28,000 people have been predicted.
He mentioned that an estimate has even been made that considers mortality of 1%, with almost 60 thousand deaths.
The official detailed that thanks to these estimates, which change as more information is available on the behaviour of contagions, the authorities have been able to “calculate how many material inputs we would need in all aspects (to deal with the pandemic) and also the speed at which we could and should undertake hospital conversion.”
López-Gatell indicated that regional estimates are currently available, so it should not be considered one to assess the status of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.
In addition, he indicated that the epidemic will run until the third week of October, when it will cross the flu season, currently the eighth cause of death per year of Mexicans.
Read more: ‘The nightmare doesn’t end when your loved one dies’: the aftermath left by COVID-19 in a family
As of this June 3, in Mexico, 11 thousand 729 deaths were reported by COVID-19 and 101 thousand 238 confirmed cases, of which 16 thousand 829 remain active.
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Original source in Spanish