Concern was expressed by Greenpeace for a report with climate predictions released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in which the annual global average temperature is expected to be at least 1oC above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in each of the next five years (2020-2024).
“The WMO report goes further and says there is a 20% chance that in one of the next five years the temperature will be exceeded by more than 1.5oC. That is, temperature hikes are moving forward and the dangerous 1.5-degree increase may be reached by 2024,” said Mauricio Ceballos, a spokesman for Greenpeace’s campaign area.
International climate reports show that the average Earth’s temperature is already 1.0oC above the value of the pre-industrial era, so it becomes increasingly complex to meet the paris Agreement’s climate change targets to prevent the planet’s temperature during this century from increasing beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“It is important to emphasize that the situation generated by the pandemic is far from being able to be a high-impact improvement for the planet’s climate as the variables that have increased the temperature have to do with long-standing aspects, such as the presence of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, which is highly widespread over time. Quarantines around the world will not reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and they are largely the ones that have brought up the planet’s temperature. It is clear that the only way to address this climate emergency is through global climate actions and ambitious long-term commitments,” Ceballos said.
Key data delivered by WMO
The annual global temperature is likely to exceed pre-industrial levels (which correspond to the average 1850-1900) in each of the next five years by at least 1oC, and it is highly likely that increase will range from 0.91 to 1.59oC.
The probability that, over the next five years, there will be one or more months with a temperature at least 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels is 70 %.
There is a probability of 20% that the temperature of one of the next five years will exceed at least 1.5oC pre-industrial levels, but that probability increases over time.
It’s extremely unlikely (3%) that the average temperature of the five years for the period 2020-2024 exceeds by more than 1.5oC pre-industrial levels.
In the period 2020-2024, the temperature of virtually all regions, except in parts of the southern oceans, is likely to be warmer than in the recent past.
In the period 2020-2024, regions at high latitudes and in the Sahel are likely to experience an increase in precipitation compared to the recent past, while in the northern and eastern parts of South America conditions are likely to be drier.
In the period 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that in the northern North Atlantic region the west winds could intensify and this could lead to an increase in stormy activity in Western Europe.
By 2020, the temperature of large land areas in the northern hemisphere is likely to exceed the value of the recent past by more than 0.8oC (which corresponds to the average of the period 1981-2010).
By 2020, the Arctic is likely to have more than double the global average.
The change in the smallest temperature is expected in the tropics and in areas of mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere.
By 2020, conditions are likely to be drier in many parts of South America, South Africa and Australia than in the recent past.
