The air inside palacio is polluted, several of the advisers who live there ensure. It is that 7% support for the management of President Sebastián Piñera is worrying, no matter how hard he tries to lower his profile, finding the context of the pandemic the ultimate responsible for the very low citizen evaluation. Hence the reasons for explaining why there would be several of the changes in an imminent ministerial adjustment, no longer respond only to the logic of possible candidacies that must be defined by 11 January, and where at least one secretary of state would be «enchanted» with that option, they say in La Moneda, in addition the in-house supporter and exhaustion of others was crossed.
From different portfolios the claim remains the same: the lack of political vision emanating from the second floor and the Presidency itself, which has several of the heads of portfolios thinking about their future more from outside the walls of the government house than from within. In fact, the defense holder, Mario Desbordes, has just suspended a trip to Israel of great importance to his portfolio, because – according to what they say in The Palace – the change would be this Saturday or no later than next Monday.
The names that are shuffled for replacement are those of the Minister of Mining, Baldo Prokurica; former Secretary for the Armed Forces, Alfonso Vargas; and would even be thinking as a letter to the current undersecretary of the Interior, Juan Francisco Galli. While in Monckeberg’s position, the replacement alternative is for current Undersecretary Juan Francisco Ossa to come up.
When at the end of July President Sebastián Piñera chose to deactivate the fratricidal struggle that was taking place within The National Renewal – but with scopes to the entire official sector – with Mario Desbordes and Andrés Allamand as «the protagonists of the story», he did not think of the rebound effect that three months later would trigger within his government.
But the internal crisis in which the RN party is subsumed reached such a level that a concerted operation soon sought to rush the return of the one who became, during the social outburst, one of the brightest figures on the right, as is the current head of the Defense portfolio, who also established himself as the representative of the social right.
If at first there was talk of March, then this date changed for the first week of January, but it is such internal chaos that, finally, it would have been chosen to take the step earlier, as indicated by sources of the collective. «If the UDI has already been ordered with Macaya, now it is RN’s turn. And if Mario has to get out, let him do it now,» he confesses to a Palace adviser.
Monckeberg to the Convention and Allamand caught up in the Chancellery
The alarms were set on after it was known that RN’s general council had been re-analyzed from December 19 to January 5, as published by Ex-Ante. This, because – according to transcended from the store – a large number of councillors seek to raise the figure of Desbordes and officialize it as a candidate for the primaries of Chile Vamos por Renovación Nacional.
The current Minister of the Segpres, Cristián Monckeberg, who has been constantly pressured from inside his party to «put order» back, would land in Antonio Varas’ store and thus seek to prevent the collectivity from further sinking into his «intra-ancestry», under the command of the current helmsman, Rafael Prohens, comment on RN.
In this way, the bet seeks to get Desbordes to take over the campaign in the different elections, such as the Constitutional Convention, regional governors and also mayors. From there, the idea is to add strengths to thicken your presidential profile and compete with Joaquín Lavín. Part of the design would also be – as noted above – for Minister Monckeberg to return to Antonio Varas’ house to lead the party, although there are some who do not rule out that he would be thinking of applying as a constituent.
But in government, the «climbing» exit does not convince most advisers, since all eyes are on 7% approval of presidential management, so one of the first possible readings will inevitably have begun the «landing». Without a doubt, the best space to «live», from next April when the constituents are already elected, will be the «new house», the Constitutional Convention, and many in Palacio are evaluating leaving La Moneda as soon as possible, where the only thing that «looks» is the COVID report.
The only RN who would be staying is Foreign Minister Andrew Allamand, who would be trapped on the walls of the Chancellery, watching his «colleagues» leave the ship in a bet that seduces everyone: to be part of those who will draft the new Constitution.
The Golden Duo
Monckeberg and Desbordes form a leadership that left traces in the party. His political project managed to lower the demands so that more people could apply to the different positions of representation of RN, in search of countering the project of his predecessor, Carlos Larraín, who bet on a smaller collective. The réditos soon bear fruit in the last election, which placed them as the largest match on the right.
Not only that, but his commitment to look to the center rather than the right to contest that space to a centralizquierda convulsive, they assure, would have been consolidated in time, although not everyone shares that vision when demanding numbers and new political pacts in response.
Zaldívar and the awkward 6%
Attempting to disguise all possible outings as an opportunity given to Palace members to compete as constituent candidates became more complex. Because of this, several began to talk about a possible overtaking of the cabinet change, which would have originally been intended for the first week of January, considering that the 11th of that month the fatal deadline for registering the applications of constituent conventionals is met.
This is on the understanding that the list of those leaving office has become somewhat broader than some thought. And beyond the fulfilion of the names that today resonate in the corridors of the Palace, which would consider at least four ministers, in addition to undersecretaries, the reasons that some would have are the ones that would be mostly uncomfortable.
From the Currency itself, the name of the Minister of Labour, María José Zaldívar, is repeated, who is in the midst of a dispute in which she would not have much power to manoeuvre when it comes to pension reform. Since while the opposition would not move from the additional 6% of the contribution for solidarity, the Government would not be clear in the signs of how far it would be willing to give in. They recall some sources that, at some point, a 4-2 was offered, that is, four for solidarity and two for individual account. In this sense, every time the subject is discussed, the minister only has to «put her face».
A similar example is that given to Minister Christian Monckeberg, who had to receive «all bullets» when the second 10% withdrawal was approved in the House, at which point they did not yet decide whether or not to take action to change the course of the project. In other ministries they accuse a similar situation, which would have several thinking of leaving Palacio, due to the wear and tear of keeping the boat «float».
The other problem that comes with the imminent exit is that of replacements, as it has become increasingly difficult to find the right people to take over the sectors, in particular, even considering that «for no one it is business» to join an exit government with 7% approval, they said. In this understanding, the polls would be done with a view to the Parliamentarians of Chile Vamos who have no chance of going to re-election, in addition to the classic redisper with the eventual undersecretary of the portfolio.
Internal RN, a sign of calm
Finally, all the rush in the new naming movement in Palacio arises from the complex situation that is lived inside the party, where its president, Rafael Prohens, is getting closer and closer. But as people who know about internal work pointed out, there would have been approaches to achieving a kind of truce, although not many have been entirely convinced.
This would be the renewal of two charges within the directive. In this way, the strategy would be to calm the waters in dissent and put a man of greater weight in officialism. There is talk of the possible departures of Deputy Tomás Fuentes, close to former senator Andrés Allamand, and Nicolás Cerda, current chief of staff of Senator Francisco Chahuán.
Although there was initially talk of senator Rodrigo Galilea’s entry, the negotiations would have been moved to the names of the Undersecretary of Social Welfare, Pedro Pizarro, of the «chahuanist» sector, and eventually of Cristián Monckeberg.
And although the general council was re-established by January 5, pending, several, that the current defense minister can be proclaimed as a presidential letter, it is also expected thatconsensus on the internal election date of RN and, by the way, the submission of forms for candidates for the different elections.
If it was originally set for July – dissent had fought for it to be in December – there would eventually be a cross-sectional current of placing it in March, although that would not entirely leave according to «no one», considering that all the cards would have already been played for influencing the pre-election process.
For now, in the intern they are seeing how to rearrange Ms. Paulina Núñez, current vice president, who failed to top the leadership void left by Mario Desbordes, despite all the efforts that were made. This, considering the design that envisages that his current spouse, Minister Monckeberg, will lead the list to apply to take over RN again.