translated from Spanish: Caution in Fiestas Patrias: iCovid report warns of an increase in infections and a decrease in testing for holidays

The ICOVID Chile team, an initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its 56th report with analysis and data of the proposed dimensions to monitor the pandemic in the country, with information obtained until Saturday, September 11, 2021, provided through an agreement with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
The new report reports that nationwide the number of new daily infections has increased compared to the previous week, going “from 409 new daily cases (in the week of August 29) to 455 new average daily cases in the week reported in this report (from September 5 to 11).” An increase driven mainly by the regions of Arica and Parinacota and Antofagasta.
The estimated burden, according to this latest report, remains yellow nationwide, reaching 2.3 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, revealing an increase over the previous week, when 2.1 were registered. At the local level, meanwhile, the greatest load is concentrated in the extreme north of the country, highlighting the Region of Arica and Parinacota, which shows the highest estimated load (11), followed by the regions of Atacama (4.9), Antofagasta (4.4) and Tarapacá (4.2).
With regard to transmission, the effective reproduction number (R), which represents the average number of people who can infect a case, is above 1 at the national level, the same as in all regions. “The information provided by this indicator puts us on alert in the sense that local outbreaks could occur again, since the pandemic, although at low levels, is growing,” they say.
At the local level, the Region of Arica and Parinacota has the highest value of R, with 2.3 in the last week, followed by the regions of Magallanes (1.7), Aysén (1.6) and Antofagasta (1.6).
Regarding positivity, the new report shows that it reached a value of 0.9% nationwide, being the first time since the beginning of the pandemic that it reaches a value of less than 1%, which again marks a record. At the regional level, meanwhile, all have positivities in green, with 11 regions showing a positivity of 1% or less. “Regions above 1% are still under 1.5%,” the report reads.
For its part, the number of tests per thousand inhabitants has decreased steadily in recent weeks, reaching a value of 15.9 tests per thousand inhabitants in the last week. “It is encouraging news that, despite the decrease in tests, positivity does not increase. However, it is important to attend to this indicator and try to maintain the number of tests carried out in order to better monitor the decreases in positivity and be prepared to take action in the face of emerging increases, especially in the holidays that are coming to us, “point out the researchers.
Jorge Pérez, a researcher at the Millennium Institute for Research in Fundamentals of Data and an academic at the University of Chile, highlights that “positivity for the first time fell from 1% nationwide, which represents excellent news. All regions are in green color of this indicator and below 1.5% positivity. This drop is observed despite the decrease in tests that reached the lowest value observed since the beginning of this year.”
And, he makes a special call thinking about the celebrations of Fiestas Patrias, noting that “given the holidays that come, it is most likely that the number of tests will be even lower in the following days. It is important not to neglect this indicator and increase the number of tests to be prepared to take action in the face of possible increases in contagion during the holidays.”
In terms of traceability, the report indicates that the indicator of early consultation, which calculates the proportion of people who had a visit to the doctor in two days or less since they started symptoms, registered a value of 54.3% nationwide. While at the regional level, the reality is heterogeneous: the Magallanes Region reached values above 80%, being green, while the regions of Coquimbo and Aysén with 39.7% and 36.7%, respectively, present worrying values, being in red.
The examination and laboratory time indicator, which measures the percentage of tests that were reported to the Ministry of Health in a day or less from the medical consultation, exceeded the threshold of the green color, with a value of 81% nationwide. This represents an increase from the previous two weeks when the indicator was yellow. At the local level, 9 of the 16 regions present the indicator above 80% and, therefore, in green.
On the other hand, the indicator of early confirmation of cases, which is a composition of the times of early consultation and laboratory, and is defined as the proportion of suspicious symptomatic people whose laboratory test result is reported to the health authority within three days from the date of onset of symptoms, reached a value of 58% nationwide. “Although the indicator remains orange, this is the highest value reached since we began its measurement,” say the researchers. At the local level, the regions of Arica and Parinacota and Magallanes stand out positively with values of 87% and 83%, respectively, both in green.
As for hospital occupancy, the report indicates that at the national level it has remained at values close to 82% in recent weeks, placing it in the orange color of the ICOVID traffic light. At the local level, meanwhile, it varies from 20% in the Aysén Region, to 87.24% in the Los Lagos Region. The report shows that there are four regions with occupations greater than 85% (Antofagasta, Coquimbo, Valparaíso and Los Lagos), which places them in red.
With respect to the indicator of icu bed use by COVID-19 patients, it continues to decline, reaching 19.74% nationwide, falling below the 20% threshold for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. As a reference, it should be noted that the previous week had a value of 22.27%, while a month ago, in the week of August 8, the national occupation by COVID-19 patients was 31.99%.
The weekly rate of change in hospitalizations for COVID-19, which measures the trend in hospital demand for infected patients, maintains the low values of the last two months. In fact, “in the week analyzed its value fluctuated between -13% and -18%, maintaining its classification in green color of the ICOVID traffic light. Recently, this indicator reached values of around -21%, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic,” the report reads.
In the average daily use of ICU beds by COVID-19 patients by age group, it is observed that bed occupancy maintains a sustained decrease in all of them, maintaining the trend of recent weeks. The daily decrease in bed use by COVID patients is -13.63% in people over 70 years of age compared to last week (with 172 average cases in the week analyzed), -18.27% between 50 and 70 years of age (262 average cases) and -16.57% in children under 50 years of age (124 average cases).
Héctor Ramírez, academic and principal investigator of the Center for Mathematical Modeling of the University of Chile, stressed that “the use of ICU beds by COVID patients continues to decrease, falling below 20% in the week analyzed, a situation that occurs for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.” In addition, it adds that “breaking down hospital occupancy by age group, it is observed that bed occupancy has a significant decrease in all groups, maintaining the trend of recent weeks.”
Mortality from COVID-19 according to age groups, dimension on deceased, laboratory-confirmed and suspicious people, based on official data from the Department of Statistics and Health Information (DEIS), registered 182 deaths in the last week observed, where 67% (122 deaths) are of people 70 years and older, 27% (50 deaths) of people between 50 and 69 years, and 6% (10 deaths) of children under 50 years of age.
Finally, with respect to COVID-19 vaccination coverage according to age groups, 71% of the national population reached the complete vaccination schedule, that is, one or two doses depending on the type of vaccine, coverage that continues to increase permanently. The regions of Magallanes (79.3%), Ñuble (78.7%) and Aysén (77.9%) stand out with the highest coverage.

Original source in Spanish