Different analyses point to a contraction between 1% and 2.5% for the January Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (Imacec). How yes, they project an improvement over the course of the year.
Banchile Inversiones, for example, indicated on Friday that the sectoral figures provided by INE “confirm our estimate that January’s Imacec could record a deeper setback than December (-0.4% a/y)”, according to Emol.
The agency emphasized the contraction of industrial production, which fell for the third time in a row, decreasing by 2.4% in January. This, below Bloomberg’s 0.4% advance.
BTG Pactual, for its part, projects – with the activity figures published by the INE – a “fall of the Imacec (January) in the range -2.5/-3.5%”.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs foresees a smaller contraction: a drop of 1.0% a/c. Similarly, Coopeuch’s chief economist, Felipe Ramírez, stated that “January’s Imacec would be around -1.3% a/y, where the Imacec’s drops in services and industries would be the protagonists,” he told the medium.
Ramirez believes that “this year the economy will have important sources of instability” and owes it to “poor job creation of good quality, people being cautious about returning to normal paces of life, falling companies that have not adapted to the new normality or that came with pre-pandemic problems, and uncertainty around the development of the constituent process and presidential and parliamentary elections.”
