translated from Spanish: Analysts predict higher levels of inflation and GDP drop

the survey of expectations of market (REM) is a survey that to 31 consultants and local research centres, 12 financial institutions in Argentina and 3 an You alistas foreigners about their predictions about certain key variables of the economy. 

According to the report in October, which took place between 26 and 28 last month, market analysts expect inflation of 44.8% for 2018, increasing about 5 points with respect to what thought months ago. 

Short term forecasts implicitly indicate a rate of monthly inflation for September of 5.9%, hoping to go down in the months that follow. In all cases analysts raised their projections of inflation for the next 6 months with respect to the August survey. 

Source: REM – BCRA (Sep – 18) REM participants projected a fall of 2.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) for 2018 and 0.5% for 2019.  

Source: REM – BCRA (Sep – 18) at the same time, projected an average rate of LELIQ pesos to 7 65% until November and a downward path forward. According to the policy established by the Central Bank, although it should be recalled that in the first two days rates reached a maximum level of 73%. 

Forecasts of the REM of the nominal rate of Exchange, i.e. the value of the dollar, increased for all periods, with respect to the survey from last month.

Recession GDP dollar Central Bank

Original source in Spanish