In 2021, the increase in demand for products and services due to monetary expansion reached approximately 50,000 million dollars, the result of AFP withdrawals, public policies and added to the lack of stock and increase in the exchange rate of the dollar in the purchase of imported goods such as the automotive industry, leave a starting point for the analysis quite clear. However, economic growth according to the projection of the International Monetary Fund, is estimated to be close to 12% for this 2021, a fact that would leave above the Latin American average that is close to 6.3%. The Monetary Policy Report of the Central Bank projects maximum growth of 2.5% for Chile in 2022, this could generate some concern in some sectors and an inauspicious outlook in the gross domestic product, activity that is positive in Chile since the mid-eighties except for the falls of 1999, 2009 and 2020. In our economy economic development may not be reflected with the figures of economic growth, in other words, we have very good figures at the macro level, but from the point of view of economic development we are not increasing, this generates a greater gap and generates inequality that translates into problems from the social and economic, important task for the new authorities.
On the other hand, inflation as a result of consumption played a leading role. The sustained increase in the general level of consumer prices bids farewell to 2021 with inflation of around 7% almost double the normal in Chile. Likewise, the outlook should be maintained in the first quarter if there is no decrease in the exchange rate that today affects the price of fuel as a result of global demand. Around economic policies, specifically restrictive monetary policies to curb consumption by raising the monetary policy rate to 4% per year, investment will affect the first quarter of 2022, which is the fundamental activity of the economy as a result of political changes, pandemic and uncertainty.
Employment will continue to add up next year despite low investment and the great challenge is to recover confidence to stimulate economic activities in the medium term. One of the most affected is the real estate company, which after knowing the measures of the Central Bank, estimated that more than 40% of the mortgage loans that were in progress were retracted, which shows that the industry will suffer a significant blow to the high bank rates that by 2022 should be close to 6% per year, where it will obviously restrict the banking business, real estate and the effort in families to face payments in Development Units.
What should we take into account to reactivate our economy?
It is ideal to take into account four elements: The differentiation of the products and services offered to customers, must be attractive and innovative, secondly, the technological transformation that requires negotiating and using the available digital capacity to better develop our business, third to know in depth the business model that represents the value proposition depending on customers and suppliers and finally, is human talent as a key player in the reactivation with a marked presence at management and senior management levels, with clear soft skills that are differentiating skills in decision making.
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