The consulting firm Gemines estimated a growth of 9.9% for the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (Imacec) of January compared to the same month last year.
“Growth has remained high in the first month of 2022 despite the suspension of the IFE and that another month has passed without withdrawals of afPs,” Gemines’ studies manager, Alejandro Fernández Beroš, said in a statement.
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“According to our estimate, the Imacec would have grown 9.9% in the twelve months to January, with a slight seasonally adjusted increase compared to December, despite the lower mobility generated by the outbreak of the omicron variant,” he added.
On data recently provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), he indicated that “they show the persistence of a depressed situation in mining, which registered a considerable fall (-6.3%). On the contrary, manufacturing maintained an acceptable dynamism (2.6%), as did EGA (3.1%).
“Trade activity, on the other hand, continues to maintain levels of activity far removed from the historical trend and its growth remains unsustainably high (12%), which should begin to change clearly in March, expecting it to enter negative territory later in the year, to return to its sustainable trend,” he added.
“We have adjusted the year’s projection upwards, to 3% from 2.9%, taking into account the expectation of a good start in 2022 and the likely effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but this reflects nothing more than the drag effect of the good end of last year. In the second half the results will be completely different,” Beroš added.
