Michoacán at high risk of organized crime interference in the 2024 elections: Integralia – MonitorExpresso.com

Morelia, Michoacán. – A public affairs consultancy in Mexico, recently announced in its first report on political violence the six entities with a “very high risk” of suffering the intervention of organized crime in the next local elections in 2024; as you probably imagined, Michoacán is part of that identification.
Integralia, a consulting firm on political risk, public affairs and strategic planning, took on the task of disseminating a special report in February of this year in which it released the Crime Intervention Risk Map in the 2024 Local Elections; This interpretation of Mexico’s political and social environment made it possible to make some recommendations, but without a doubt also to evoke the deafening echo of the insecurity that has existed for centuries. In the first instance, it must be understood that the takeover of local governments can happen at any time, but elections provide the opportunity to establish or extend criminal influence from the beginning of new administrative efforts. Thus, it sounds attractive for criminal groups to subjugate municipal authorities in order to consolidate their power, and gain access to valuable resources, such as police cooperation, which allows them to act without legal restrictions, diversify their operations and weaken their competitors. Here in Mexico, “Organized crime will intervene ― as never before ― in the 2024 local elections for three reasons: i) a large number of criminal groups in armed conflict, ii) the proliferation of illicit markets, in addition to drug trafficking, and iii) the largest number in the history of disputed municipal presidencies,” and it is reflected in figures, So far in 2024, there have been records of 32 victims of political violence, of which 8 are candidates killed since the beginning of the electoral process. Of course, we live in unsafe times, because among the six states with a “very high” risk of facing organized violence is Michoacán, followed by Guerrero, Colima, Jalisco, Chiapas and Morelos; On the other hand, Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, State of Mexico, Tabasco and Veracruz are present with a “high” risk. It is worth mentioning that in order to catalog the levels of risk or ‘the probability of crime intervention in local elections’, it was taken into account how many of the 5 factors defined each entity had; Unfortunately, Michoacán has the 5 defined as “i) accumulation of illicit markets, ii) criminal groups in armed conflict, iii) a weak rule of law, iv) holding municipal elections, and v) key municipalities for crime, highly competitive”. What are the mechanisms through which criminal groups intervene in elections? Political violence: threats, kidnappings, assaults and assassinations against public officials, pre-candidates or candidates, in order to force them to cooperate or eliminate them. It is the most visible mechanism.  Campaign financing: the provision of economic resources to pay for the campaigns of its candidates.  Imposition of candidates: interference in the process of defining candidates within political parties to nominate people linked to criminal groups.  Mobilizing or inhibiting voting: delivery of groceries, cash, as well as threats or aggressions to the population, to increase or decrease the vote to benefit candidates linked to criminal groups.  Intervention in polling stations: destruction of ballots, polling places or electoral facilities, as well as threats and attacks on electoral personnel, to benefit candidates linked to criminal groups.

Original source in Spanish