The time is finished to the government, after a year lost as was the 2018 in the legislative, and without changes in the Political team, there is nothing to foretell that with the same cast, President Sebastián Piñera obtain different results, being able to move to history as the most irrelevant administration of the last 80 years.
How much political time is left for the executive to legislate “major reforms”? Very little, because in practice the legislative world begins to switch from “switch” in October, the day that marks the year just before the municipal elections and regional governors. I mean, there’s only five months left.
Obviously the government can continue to command projects until the last day of its mandate, but both the environment and the calculation will not be the same as this year in legislation. The reasons are left over politically and electorally. And they essentially point out that the majority of the members of the regions and some of the capital, their electoral fate is strongly linked to the results of the elections in the municipalities of their districts, since it is the moment where the territorial Force accumulates for the Subsequent parliamentary campaign, so costs are calibrated and the political focus changes. In the senators who go to re-election is usually the same process, at least 20 of them and them.
In October 2019, it is the moment where the forces and agendas of future candidates for mayor, councillors, and also more than one interested in being regional governor begin to move, because the deadline for all those who are enrolled in a party is fulfilled Political can renounce to go as independent or in another political force. It’s time to close deals and promises at parties.
At the same time, it begins to weave the possible alliances for the pacts that must be registered for mayor and councillors, in view of the primaries of June 2020. This work compromises a lot of energy by the parties and the parliamentarians, because each one will bid to try to put “its people” within the templates that will go to primaries, more to try to privilege a logic of alliances inclined to their local interests or Regional in terms of convenience. Not all incumbents are indifferent to the pact’s signature.
In summary, already in October of this year at the local level, we will have running to the possible candidates to primaries to mayor and to a high number of parliamentarians concerned of their zones and cities key for their reelection.
In the next summer, it will be months of pact negotiations, and the thing is not at all easy in the opposition, for today there is no fit within an alliance the Communist Party and Christian Democracy, without delving into all the reasons, if they are marked essentially by the Attitude towards Venezuela, a topic that if there are no changes in the Caribbean country, will be remarked by the right and its allies in the next municipal campaign.
On the other hand, the fate of the pacts (which are registered in April 2020, that is to say in less than a year) to councillors, should have a political logic that will not be able to distance much from the alliance, if any, to be made for the elections of Governors Regional opposition. With the numbers of the parliamentarians and the presidential election of 2017, the opposition in all its versions, loses in more/less 13 of the current 16 regions of not having full unity. And in this scenario, the broad front will also have to make decisions, given that submitting candidates in all regions to compete with the alliance that emerges from the former new majority, means putting on the right tray almost all regions and thus compromising Strongly the presidential election of 2021.
On the other hand, just in one more year, it will be possible to be doing legal propaganda for the mayor’s primary elections and the political scene for the government will be retracted and irrelevance. The political tension will have moved to the municipal, as the election that opens the electoral cycle that ends with the second presidential round. What is sown at the beginning of the 2020 is harvested in December of 2021.
Finally, and also in October of this year, the resignation of the current intendants begin, to compete with regional governors, elections that marked the agenda of the 2020, since they will be realized in conjunction with the election to mayors and councillors. Three elections with three different electoral systems in one day.
In September 2020 the government’s agenda will be absolutely unrelevant to the political cycle, it will be known that reforms managed to approve and which were not, and will be fully deployed to candidates for regional governors, accompanied by the precandidates Presidential.
In the president’s language, the price of government shares will be known.
Unlike other local elections, October 2020, the focus will be on the election of the governor or Regional government of the capital, as the electoral system is with the second round and if none of the candidates reaches 40% of the votes , whoever wins the ballot will have more than 1.3 million votes, in the understanding that they vote at least 2.6 million in the region. That flow of votes is quite close to what Beatriz Sánchez or Alejandro Guillier obtained, which will leave the winner immediately as a presidential potential and who loses as another potential senator or senator.
At that point of the party, few would remember that the government one day had an ambitious agenda of reforms, only the results and achievements of those months, and the conceived perception for its people, of how much I add or remains to appear linked to Piñera. Scenario that today looks dark for the current administration, given the inefficiency of the cabinet and the eternal improvisation of the president. “Better times” will be no more than a bad campaign memory.
The content poured in this opinion column is the sole responsibility of its author, and does not necessarily reflect the editorial line or position of the counter.
