Mexico begins this Sunday the campaign for an intermediate election preceded by the assassination of dozens of politicians, and key to the project of leftist representative Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
This June 6th, the largest elections will be held in the history of Mexico.
92 million Mexicans on the national electoral institute’s (INE) roll will be able to go to the polls to vote for 20,292 popular election positions.
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In addition to local positions, it will be voted to renew the 500 posts of the Chamber of Deputies and 15 out of 32 governors.
This Sunday, election campaigns begin in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Michoacán, Nayarit, Querétaro, Sinaloa, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas. These entities join Colima, Campeche, Guerrero, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí and Sonora who started campaigns on March 5.
Of the states at stake, 8 are currently governed by the PRI, 4 by the PAN, one by Morena, one by the PRD and one by an independent.
The path to choice has been stained with blood. Since last September, when the party primaries began, 15 pre-candidates and one candidate were killed, according to consultancy Etellekt.
In that period, another half-hundred politicians were also killed, according to the government, who attributed these facts to drug traffickers and other criminal groups.
The 2018 election left 48 pre-candidates killed, according to Etellekt.
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Brunette plays most
In the June elections will be at stake the current absolute majority (half plus one) with which Morena has in the Chamber of Deputies, and that allows him to pass ordinary laws.
But López Obrador requires a qualified majority (two-thirds) to pass possible constitutional reforms that would expand the role of the state in strategic sectors such as energy and hydrocarbons.
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Although with allies it achieves a qualified majority, the Green Party rejects some projects, which is why the representative seeks to reduce that dependence.
“It is up to them (allies) that López Obrador’s project will continue properly or perhaps get frustrated,” historian and political scientist José Antonio Crespo told the AFP.
It will be the largest election in Mexico’s history, after modifications to converge federal and state elections.
The Senate will maintain its current composition until 2024, and although Morena also has an absolute majority, it is obliged to negotiate the opposition.
In this election you will see if the popularity of López Obrador, who according to the firm Oraculus has a 63% acceptance helps Morena maintain her majority.
Morena would maintain control of the Chamber of Deputies with 42% of the vote, above National Action (PAN, 17%) PRI (16%), Oraculus estimates.
Although it has joined around several candidates, the opposition looks “blurred” and could hardly surprise, Crespo observes.
However, “a lot can happen by (presidential) 2024. A president’s last three years are the most complicated,” he adds.
Elections in the midst of the pandemic
In addition to violence, another challenge will be to develop the election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Mexico, of 126 million inhabitants, votes in person and on a single day, which could accentuate the usual abstentionism in the middle.
Mexico is the third country most punished by coronavirus in absolute numbers, with just over 204,000 deaths.
The authorities recommend that rallies be controlled, but some candidates, especially from small communities, are exhibited on social media leading mass gatherings.
With AFP information.
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