by 2025 there will be more than 80,000 deaths from overdose of opioids in the United States, an increase of 147% compared to 2015, according to a study published today that simulated a crisis even greater than projected It is approaching by the abuse of analgesics in the country. The analysis was exposed in the magazine scientific of the American Medical Association (JAMA, by its acronym in English) and used data from the national survey on drug use and health (NSDUH), together with statistics of the Centers for Control and prevention of Diseases (CDC).” We developed a mathematical model, the ‘model policies of opioids’, to simulate the crisis of overdose in the United States from 2002 to 2025 “, explained Qiushi Chen, researcher from the Department of Industrial Engineering and manufacturing of the State University of Pennsylvania and one of the authors of the report.
The model was compared and calibrated with data from deaths registered by illicit use of opioids between 2002 and 2015. Based on that calibration, the study projected 147% increase in deaths over the next 10 years for this cause. Research foresees that the number of people using opioids illegally will increase by 61%, from 930,000 in 2015 to 1.5 million in 2025.De this way, it was calculated that, continue the current models of prevention and control of prescription opioid abuse deaths from this cause in the country will increase from 33.100 accounted for in 2015 to 2025 81.700.
Photo: pixabay.com “the results of the study suggest that actions against abuse of prescription opioids, such as programs of monitoring of prescriptions, they may have a modest effect – in the best of cases – on the number of deaths by” overdose of opioids in the near future”, said the report.
“Additional treatment and prevention policies are urgently needed to turn the tide of this epidemic”, noted in its conclusions.
According to data published last year by the CDC, 72.287 deaths were recorded in 2017 by drug abuse. The entity stressed that cases by opiate overdose of medical use, such as fentanyl, caused more casualties than heroin. The drug enforcement agency’s (DEA) U.S. estimated at four million the number of addicted to painkillers – including those of prescription medical-, almost 300,000 of whom are teenagers. 200 people in the United States die every day by opiate overdose; an addiction that affects 4 million in the country, where the authorities try to put brake bleeding which has its origin on occasions in prescriptions. EFEUSA this note:
