Former Deputy Economy Minister Emmanuel Alvarez Agis spoke to a circle of Wall Street investors to bring peace of mind about the policies Alberto Fernandez intends to implement if his triumph is confirmed. According to the decline, there were at least two conference calls, one organized by Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual and another by XP Investments. On one side, wall Street investors and analysts heard, Alvarez Agis – who speaks very good English – and made it clear that «neither Fernandez nor Cristina Kirchner wants a default.» The economist promised a moderate government led by Alberto Fernández, faced with concerns about what his eventual administration will be like, where real power will rest and what his room for manoeuvre will be.
«Cristina Kirchner will not impede an agenda of reforms or centrist policies,» said Alvarez Agis.
The former deputy minister, who also made a public appearance during the week and praised the president of the Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, argued that Alberto Fernandez, in addition to attracting voters outside of Kirchnerism, can also better deal with markets and take out necessary reforms in Congress.He believed that renegotiation with the IMF should include an «effort» in structural reforms. Fernandez is willing, he said, to discuss a planned reform and labor reform, although less aggressive than, for example, drives Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.The candidate of the Frente de Todos wants «micro» labor reforms, focused on markets specifics like software – talked about that with Free Market CEO Marcos Galperin- lithium, power generation or oil and gas, but not «macro labor reform.» For Alvarez Agis, the biggest challenge is debt to the Fund, and the first step is to see how much you want and how much you are willing to refinance the agency, and from there define future financing needs. It is also concerned that the Treasury will have trouble refinancing short-term bonds, Treasury bills, or LETE, due to market panic. If the Fund holds the next turn for about $5.4 billion, Alvarez Agis warned, the economy could collapse. The economist mentioned a possible increase in withholdingto improve revenue, and left the door open for some kind of capital control. He argued that, unlike Macri, Alberto Fernández will seek to revive growth by emphasizing demand more than supply. He highlighted the role of the Vaca Muerta deposit and said Fernandez will seek to give investors predictability. In this note: