translated from Spanish: Venezuela, Maduro and Guaidó: are we facing the calm of a new storm?

After a quiet end to the year, if this adjective continues to be valid in the Caribbean country, the beginning of 2020 promptly re-evident the tensions that remain and deepen the political pulse of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The essentially accepted worst crisis in the country’s history, which is going through and erodes social, political and economic axes, limitations in the full exercise of democracy, and a certain regional political consensus that seeks to isolate Chávez’s successor over the figure of Juan Guaidó are some of the points that explain this reality. For the first weekend of the year and with the election of a new President of the National Assembly, this context soon became apparent. With the usual uncertainty and after a Sunday in which the opposition denounced a parliamentary coup, Juan Guaidó was finally re-elected to the head of the legislature. 

Juan Guaidó, President of the National Assembly of Venezuela

Internally, Guaidó is held by an agreement drawn between the four main opposition parties (People’s Will, First Justice, Democratic Action and A New Time, the so-called G-4). From the international level, in addition to the explicit support of the United States, the leader of the National Assembly held a tour a few weeks ago from which he promised that «increase» the «pressure mechanisms» against the Executive.The truth is that the opponent left Venezuela for an extensive tour that took him through Bogota, London, Brussels, Davos, Paris, Ottawa, Madrid, Miami and Washington where he interviewed, among others, with Ivan Duque, Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Justin Trudeau and Angela Merkel.However, the chavista structure of government, at the moment, does not bend to this. In this sense, military forces are the piece of a puzzle that, regardless of deepening on this scenario, are the only ones that would seem to be able to twist the political future of the country.

Maduro, President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

The redirect of military support would appear to be, at the moment, the only alternative of Juan Guaidó to be able to aspire to reach the Miraflores Palace.In this last week, Maduro activated the maneuvers contemplated within the «Bolivarian Shield 2020», from which sought to make the material part lysed, but fundamentally, the internal cohesion of the Law Enforcement. Guaidó said that «pressure mechanisms are only going to increase; however controversial they may be, they’re just going to keep growing,» while calling from their social media to keep an eye on announcements for the agenda for the next few days. Any forecast in Venezuela is reckless. The main indicator that the scenario in the country is extremely complex is that all the alternatives that are proposed as possible to look for solutions actually seem utopian. For the time being, with a Court of Justice devoid of any legitimacy, the eventual detention of Juan Guaidó is presented as a potential disruptive element within this crisis, no longer economic and social, but also political. In this note:

Original source in Spanish

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