Economics experts envisage a complex economic scenario for Chile as a result of the pandemic. By May, they expect a decline of between 8.5% and 11%. However, other experts believe that the decline in the economy could be 20%.
In this regard, BCI’s chief economist Sergio Lehmann estimated that the May Imacec could have a drop of between 7 and 15%. “Total quarantine in Greater Santiago has a very strong impact on business services, in addition to commerce, restaurants and hotels. On that basis, we are preliminary reviewing our Imacec estimate from -7% to -15%,” he told El Mercurio.
“Stricter health restraint measures are understood to be taken, but of course these involve a high economic cost,” Lehmann added.
Meanwhile, the academic of the University of Chile, Alejandro Alarcón argued to La Tercera that total quarantine in the Gran Santiago could bring a May Imacec of between -10% and 13%. Meanwhile, Bice Inversiones economist Marco Correa argues that the fall would be 10.5%. “The implementation of total quarantine for the Great Santiago incorporated an additional downside risk, as it could be extended over time and in the communes with this measure,” he said.
On the other hand, Banchile’s chief economist Carolina Grunwald said that “to get an idea of the impact of the paralysis of activities, one can refer to a Treasury document published late last year (after 18-O) where, on average, a less worked day would subtract 0.24pp from the Imacec of the month.” It adds that it expects a decline of between 7% and 9% for the second quarter of 2020.
