Global tourism revenues would fall by up to $3.3 trillion due to restrictions to curb the spread of Covid-19 and the US sector would suffer the biggest losses, according to a UN study released wednesday.
The report “Covid-19 and Tourism” disseminated by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (CNUCYD) is based on three scenarios for industry, with confinement measures that would last for 4 months, 8 months and 12 months.
In these scenarios, revenues would fall 1.17 trillion, $2.22 trillion and $3.3 trillion, respectively, or between 1.5% and 4.3% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The report did not detail which scenario is most likely, although a CNUCYD official said the central scenario “could be a realistic one.”
“International tourism has been almost completely suspended and local tourism has been reduced by the confinement conditions imposed in many countries,” the report says.
“While some destinations have slowly begun to reopen, many are afraid of international travel or cannot afford them because of the economic crisis.”
The United States would suffer the biggest losses in all three scenarios, with a drop of $187 billion if the confinement measures extend for four months, followed by China with $105 billion. Thailand and France would also lose about 47 billion each.
Some small island states like Jamaica will suffer large losses in proportion to their economies, facing a fall of 11% of GDP, or $1.68 billion.
The US losses in the “pessimistic” scenario would be $538 billion, or 3% of GDP.
Some of the estimates are comparable to those of a previous UN World Tourism Organization report published in May, which showed that tourism figures could fall from 60% to 80%, compared to the AVERAGE SCENARIO of UNCYCD of a 66% crash.
