Data firm Nielsen Gracenote considers Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 victory over Argentina on Tuesday to be the biggest upset in World Cup history, surpassing the U.S. victory over England in 1950.
Using a proprietary system and a complex formula that takes into account team strength, location and history, Gracenote said the probability of 51st ranked Saudi Arabia beating an unbeaten Argentine team in 36 international matches was 8.7%.
Some of the most famous surprises, such as North Korea’s victory over Italy in 1966 and Cameroon’s victory over then-champion Argentina in the first match of 1990, did not make the Gracenote top 10. Both reached the quarterfinals, indicating that they were better teams than previously thought.
Top 10 World Cup surprises according to Gracenote:
1. Saudi Arabia 2 Argentina 1 (8.7% chance) 2022.
2. United States 1 England 0 (9.5%) 1950.
3. Switzerland 1 Spain 0 (10.3%) 2010.
4. Algeria 2 West Germany 1 (13.2%) 1982.
5. Ghana 2 Czech Republic 0 (13.9%) 2006.
6. Uruguay 2 Brazil 1 (14.2%) 1950.
7. South Korea 2 Germany 0 (14.4%) 2018.
8. Wales 2 Hungary 1 (16.2%) 1958.
9. Northern Ireland 1 Spain 0 (16.5%) 1982.
10. Senegal 1 France 0 (17.3%) 2002.
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