Global warming: Earth’s temperature will exceed pre-industrial levels by 2024

Global warming is a growing concern, especially after 2023 has been confirmed as the warmest year and predictions for 2024 indicate that the global average annual temperature could exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for the first time. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that 2023 was the warmest year on record globally, surpassing 2016. Now, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) predicts that temperatures in 2024 could be between 1.43 and 1.69 ºC higher than in the pre-industrial era, with a central estimate of 1.54 ºC. This increase is mainly attributed to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. In this way, the conditions of the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific are expected to contribute to the generation of an exceptionally warm environment and over the next 10 years, a continuous increase in surface temperatures is expected due to ongoing emissions. The BSC’s prediction system estimates that global average temperatures could reach between 1.49 and 1.79 °C or 1.67 and 1.94 °C above pre-industrial levels in the next 10 and 15 years, respectively. Despite possible year-to-year variations, global warming is on a worrying trajectory, approaching the targets agreed in Paris in 2015.

Original source in Spanish