It is the only one of the countries seeking membership in the European Union (EU) that was unanimous about not imposing sanctions on Russia for attacking Ukraine, although it has condemned that aggression.
It is the only European capital where thousands march in support of Putin’s aggression towards Russia’s neighbour, although Belgrade was also the scene of an anti-war protest.
Serbia, which declared itself a neutral country in December 2007, wants to join the EU, but conducts military exercises with Russia (and also with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO).
Belgrade is tied to Moscow because of its dependence on Russian gas, but also because of its a sense of historical kinship, exemplified by the fact that Moscow does not recognize Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, declared in 2008. (Strictly speaking, Ukraine has not recognized Kosovo either.)
Serbian officials note that their seemingly contradictory position is based solely on “respect for international laws and justice,” but it seems clear that economics, politics and emotions are also highly influential in policymaking.
Then Where are Serbia’s interests?
No sanctions or meetings with Russia
He has been in power for a decade, but Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says he has never been more tired than he is now.
Just three days after the invasion began, he announced that Serbia would not take action against Russia, since it “considers that it is not in its vital interest to introduce sanctions against any State”.
Since then there have been numerous phone calls with Western leaders and a visit to Belgrade by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baderbock.
The question of Serbia’s position is being thoroughly examined by its potential European partners.
“There was a clear condemnation of Russian aggression in the United Nations General Assembly, and we saw the Serbian decision to join as positive,” Baerbock said, after meeting with President Vucic.
However, when asked about the lack of sanctions on Russia, Baderbock suggested that it may have been discussed at the meeting, but declined to give details during the press conference.
The Serbian president made something very clear: he claimed that he had not spoken to any of the Russian officials since the war began.
“Putin’s project is a Russian fortress,” reads the headline of a Serbian newspaper.
But the absence of sanctions was already favoring his nation, and no one benefited more than Air Serbia.
The national airline, whose ownership is shared with Etihad airline, increased the number of flights between Belgrade to Moscow to up to 15 a week, from just one a day.
After public criticism, including from Ukraine, and the fact that several flights were canceled due to bomb threats, President Vucic ordered a review of the airline’s policy.
However, he also stressed that Turkish airlines are not being publicly shamed for flying to Russia.
Officials in Belgrade say Serbia still wants to join the EU, despite another breach of EU policy towards Russia.
When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 Serbia also refused to impose sanctions. about that country, saying only that the territorial integrity of Ukraine should be respected.
The “Z” on the streets of Belgrade
The symbol representing Russian aggression in Ukraine can still be seen in the center of Belgrade, although obviously not on military equipment or armored vehicles.
In late March, several people demonstrated in the streets with their cars with Russian and Serbian flags, showing support for Vladimir Putin and the war that began in Ukraine.
In a meeting supported by nationalist organizations, protesters chanted about the eternal fraternity between Serbs and Russians.
However, the Serbian authorities claim that the support is only verbal. The Ministry of Defence denied the allegations of the General Ukrainian staff that Serbian fighters had joined Russian forces in the country.
The war also became an election campaign issue in Serbia, as the country celebrated a general election on April 3, from which Vucic was re-elected.
Far-right candidate Misa Vacículo, notorious for his nationalist commentsAs and homophobes, he officially declared his presidential candidacy driving a Japanese car marked with a makeshift “Z” on the door.
But it wasn’t just the Russian flag that was being flown in Belgrade. A couple of weeks ago, a march in support of Ukraine was held in the heart of the Serbian capital and a Russian citizen burned his passport in protest.
Gazprom and Kosovo
It was in 2008 when two events, of great importance for Serbia, brought Belgrade and Moscow closer together.
In February of that year, Kosovo declared its independence from Serbiabut Russia stood firm against the change of borders, coinciding with the Serbian position.
Then, in December, Serbia and Russia signed a state agreement whereby Russian energy giant Gazprom obtained a 51% stake in Serbian oil and gas company NIS.
This double dependence, in international and energy policies, is often seen as the key denominator in Serbian-Russian relations.
How close are the military ties?
There was a grand ceremony at Belgrade’s military airport when, in 2017, the first contingent of parts from second-hand Russian MIG-29 aircraft arrived – a “donation,” as the Serbian government called it.
It was a public demonstration of cooperation between the two Armed Forces, although many of the details about the status of the aircraft and the reconstruction and reconfiguration plans remain unknown until today.
This cooperation is much more visible to the Serbian public when the two armies conduct a exercise Joint military, often accompanied by Belarus.
Serbia conducts military exercises with Russia, but more frequently with NATO countries.
Extensive reports in the pro-government media create the impression that the Serbian military has deeper connections to the east than to NATO.
However, in one of the few times that data was obtained from military officials, Balkan Security Network published in 2019 that the Serbian Army had carried out 17 joint training operations with foreign counterparts, of which 13 were members of NATO.
It has been more than 14 years since Serbia formally declared its neutrality to all existing military alliances.
This position has been challenged before, as most countries in the region have become members of NATO.
While announcing the official position on the war in Ukraine, President Vucic added that Serbia is cancelling its participation in any joint operation with all foreign partners.
This is not the first time such a decision has been made. In 2020, when the crisis with Belarus was at its peak after the disputed result in the presidential election, Serbia decided to impose a moratorium on any military exercise with any of its partners for six months.
But it’s not just the Army whose actions are being thoroughly analyzed.
In 2021, Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza claimed in an interview with a Serbian tabloid supporting the opposition that Serbian authorities secretly followed and recorded their meetings in Belgrade.
He added that the findings were shared with Russian intelligence.
The Serbian Interior Minister, who was personally accused by Kara-Murza of sharing the data with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Pathushev, denied these allegations and announced that he would bring charges in both Serbia and Russia against Kara-Murza.
However, it is unknown if any legal action was initiated.
