Private Consultants Release Possible April Inflation Percentage

After the release of the inflation rate for March, the first estimates from private consultants suggest that April’s inflation would remain in double digits, mainly due to rate increases. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), year-on-year inflation reached 287.9%, while so far this year it has accumulated an increase of 51.6%. The items that had the greatest impact on the increase were education, with more than 52% in just one month, and communication, with 15.9%. In this way, consultants project figures for April that keep inflation in double-digit territory. C&T Economic Advisors estimates that it will be around 12% in Greater Buenos Aires and slightly lower nationally, highlighting the Housing division as the main driver due to the increases in water and gas rates. In dialogue with Infobae, Lautaro Moschet, an economist at the Freedom and Progress Foundation, said that “we estimate that inflation in April will be close to 9.5%. The impact of the increase in gas prices will contribute just over 4 points, while core inflation (which does not take into account the impact of regulated and seasonal inflation) will be markedly below this variation.” On the other hand, Matías De Luca, from Empiria Consultores, projects a CPI of 11%, considering the increases in gas and water. In this sense, Fausto Spotorno, from the Orlando Ferreres consulting firm, indicated that inflation will be between 10 and 11%, depending on how the rates are imputed in April. Meanwhile, EcoGo forecasts a percentage of 9.8%, highlighting a slowdown in consumption that puts downward pressure on prices, offset by tariff increases. In terms of food, an increase of 7.2% per month is estimated, with products such as meats, fruits, vegetables and dairy showing significant variations. According to EcoGo, the increase in food consumed inside and outside the home would reach 7.2%. As the month progresses, greater clarity is expected on the impact of these factors on April’s inflation, which remains at elevated levels, raising concerns in a complex economic context.

Original source in Spanish